NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 13, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
302-249
551 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
2-2 on 4 leans
NRFI 1-1 · YRFI 1-1
NRFI Leans
2
Parker Messick has been nearly untouchable in opening frames, posting a 91% NRFI mark across 23 starts, and that carries this lean. Detroit's bats do score early often — 34% of games, third-most in MLB — but that dips to 29% against lefties like Messick. With Keider Montero holding an 84% first-inning clean rate and Cleveland's cold offense, the edge tilts slightly NRFI.
- NRFI lean — Parker Messick (91% NRFI) and Keider Montero (84%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -134 (53% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Toronto's bats rank 30th in MLB for first-inning scoring, plating a run just 22% of the time and only 17% against left-handers — a tough draw with Payton Tolle on the mound, who's held the first inning scoreless in 68% of his 19 starts. Boston's offense hasn't been much livelier early either, so the model's 54% NRFI read makes sense against Scherzer.
- NRFI lean — Payton Tolle has worked a scoreless first in 68% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
2
Nola's 70% first-inning success rate over 23 starts is the steadier arm here, but he's stumbled lately with runs allowed in three of his last five openers. Taj Bradley's 55% NRFI clip offers less resistance, and both the Twins and Phillies rank among the top eight MLB offenses at scoring in the first. The model's 45% scoreless read leans YRFI, and the bar it faces is low.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (7th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -7.5 (11% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Walbert Urena has been a first-inning wall for the Angels, posting an 89% NRFI mark across 19 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. The tension comes from the other dugout: deGrom sits at just 55% NRFI, and the Angels lead MLB by scoring in the first 35% of the time, enough to nudge this toward YRFI despite Urena's dominance.
- YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Angels push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
5
Braxton Ashcraft brings the sharper first-inning résumé here, sitting at 73% NRFI across 22 starts for Pittsburgh. The tension comes from Miami's Tyler Phillips, who's stumbled to a 1-for-5 clean-inning stretch over his last five and holds just a 62% mark overall. With both lineups scoring early right around 30%, it grades out as a genuine coin flip.
- Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
Davis Martin's 77% first-inning shutdown rate over 22 starts is the standout here, though he's cooled with just two clean opening frames in his last five outings. Andrew Abbott counters at a more modest 57% NRFI but has been hot lately, posting four scoreless firsts in five. With the Reds scoring in the first just 27% of the time, the two arms and quiet bats leave this squarely at 50/50.
- Coin flip — Davis Martin's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Max Fried carries a strong 69% first-inning scoreless rate into the Bronx, and Logan Gilbert isn't far behind at 59%, giving both starters an edge early. But both offenses have cooled lately, going 3-for-5 in scoreless first frames, and the Yankees push a run across just 24% of the time against righties. The model's 48% scoreless read sits right at a coin flip.
- Coin flip — Max Fried's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -154 (57% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
Cade Cavalli has been sharp out of the gate lately, holding a 75% first-inning shutout rate over 24 starts and going 5-for-5 in his last five. The catch is the other dugout: Washington's lineup scores in the first 35% of the time, second-most in MLB, which offsets Kevin Gausman's steadier 61% NRFI. The result is a genuine toss-up around 48%.
- Coin flip — Cade Cavalli's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Both starters are money in the opening frame — Shane Drohan owns an 85% NRFI mark for Milwaukee and Roki Sasaki matches it for the Dodgers, each riding a perfect zero-run streak over their last five outings. Neither offense does much early either, with LA scoring first just 28% of the time against lefties and Milwaukee at 26% versus righties. The model sits at 53% scoreless, essentially a toss-up.
- Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -6.5 (10% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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