NRFI Results

Drew Anderson has yet to allow a first-inning run across his three MLB starts, while Bibee brings a 74% NRFI rate and a clean 5-for-5 in his last five. The counterweight is Detroit's bats, who score in the first 34% of the time — 4th-most in the league — against a Cleveland offense that ranks near the bottom. Anderson's tiny sample keeps this a true coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Drew Anderson's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Skenes brings a 74% first-inning shutout rate into loanDepot park and has kept the board clean in four of his last five, while Eury Perez counters with five straight scoreless first innings. The two offenses barely register early — Miami plates a run in the first just 30% of the time, Pittsburgh 31% — yet the model's 49% scoreless read trails the book's 59%, leaving this closer to a toss-up than the arms suggest.

• Coin flip — Paul Skenes' 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -172 (59% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Shota Imanaga's 77% NRFI mark, including four clean first innings over his last five starts, is the strongest lean toward a quiet frame here. The tension is Washington's bats, which score in the opening inning 34% of the time — third-most in MLB — though that dips to 31% against lefties. With Jake Irvin at a middling 58% NRFI, the model settles at a true 49% toss-up.

• Coin flip — Shota Imanaga's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Bryan Woo brings the sharper first-inning résumé here, posting an 81% NRFI mark across 21 starts, and the Yankees have plated a first-inning run in just 24% of games against righties. Ryan Weathers has been steady too at 64%, but the Mariners crack the board 30% of the time versus lefties. That two-sided pressure keeps this one close to a coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Bryan Woo's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Nearly identical NRFI resumes on the mound make this one a genuine tossup: Nolan McLean sits at 73% over 22 starts, Martin Perez at 72% across 18. Neither offense pushes the needle either, with Atlanta plating a first-inning run 31% of the time and the Mets just 27%. The model's 51% edges the book by a single point — a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Nolan McLean's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Bailey Ober brings the best first-frame résumé here, sitting scoreless in 75% of his 16 starts, and Brandon Young's 68% NRFI rate isn't far behind. The Orioles' bats work against him — Baltimore plots a first-inning run just 24% of the time, 27th in MLB. Even so, Target Field's 104 run factor and Minnesota's above-average 33% first-inning strike rate keep this a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Bailey Ober's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 33% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +104 (46% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Nick Lodolo brings the sharpest arm to Rate Field, sitting on an 83% first-inning scoreless rate with five straight clean openers, and Sean Burke's 72% mark isn't far behind. The reason this stays a coin flip: Chicago's bats push a run across in the first 31% of the time, keeping the White Sox lively enough to offset those strong starters. The model's 53% barely nudges past the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — Nick Lodolo's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Cristopher Sanchez brings a 77% NRFI mark into Busch Stadium and has held the line in four of his last five starts, while Andre Pallante has gone a perfect 5-for-5 to keep his season figure at 68%. Both offenses stay quiet early, with the Cardinals scoring first just 30% of the time and dropping to 33% against lefties. The 49% scoreless model number tracks with the 51% book — a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Cristopher Sanchez's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Ryan Johnson has kept the Angels clean in the first through 78% of his nine starts, but his club's offense is the real wild card — LA scores in the opening frame more than any team in baseball (36%, 39% versus lefties like Cody Bradford). Bradford's spotless NRFI mark rests on a single start, so the model sits near a true coin flip at 48%.

• Coin flip — Ryan Johnson's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 36% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +4.5 (63% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Michael Wacha brings a strong 82% first-inning NRFI rate across 22 starts to Dodger Stadium, which should keep the Dodgers' offense — scoring in the first just 32% of the time — in check early. The catch is Blake Snell, whose 0% NRFI mark comes from a single start, so there's really no read on him. That thin sample is why this one grades as a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Michael Wacha's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -4 (7% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.