NRFI Results

Chris Sale carries a stellar 89% first-inning NRFI mark into the Bronx and hasn't allowed a first-inning run in his last five starts, matching Cole's own 5-for-5 recent run. What keeps this from tilting further is the Yankees, who plate a first-inning run in 40% of games against lefties — a real threat to Sale that nudges it toward a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Chris Sale's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 32% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -137 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 40% against left-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Two spotless streaks collide here, with Walbert Urena and Sandy Alcantara both riding perfect 5-for-5 first innings over their last five starts. Urena's 89% NRFI mark and Alcantara's 83% argue strongly for a quiet frame, but the Angels' league-leading 35% first-inning scoring rate keeps this from being a runaway. The model's 52% scoreless read lands it squarely in coin-flip territory.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -143 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Aaron Nola's 73% first-inning shutout rate over 22 starts is the anchor here, and Toronto's bats rank dead last in MLB at scoring early (22% overall, 24% versus righties). The tension comes from the other dugout: Scherzer's split down the middle at 50% NRFI, plus Philadelphia's 7th-ranked first-inning offense, keeps this a genuine coin flip at Citizens Bank Park.

• Coin flip — Aaron Nola's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +107 (45% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Two spotless first-inning records collide here: Chase Burns has posted a 90% NRFI mark across 20 starts, while Andrew Alvarez is a perfect 8-for-8 in his young career. The wrinkle is Washington's bats, who plate a first-inning run 35% of the time — second-most in MLB and 38% against righties. That tension keeps this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Andrew Alvarez's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Seth Lugo's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (49% implied).
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Both starters have posted nearly identical first-inning marks — Taj Bradley at 57% NRFI and Robert Gasser at 58% — and each has kept the frame clean in four of their last five, which tilts things scoreless. But Minnesota's bats are the wild card, scoring in the first 34% of the time and just as often against lefties like Gasser. That tension keeps this a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Robert Gasser's 58% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.

Anthony Kay has kept the first inning clean in each of his last five starts, and Gavin Williams counters with a 73% NRFI mark across 22 outings. Cleveland's bats rank near the bottom, scoring in the opening frame just 26% of the time, but the model still sits at 52% — a shade under the book's 57%, leaving this closer to a toss-up than the price suggests.

• Coin flip — Gavin Williams' 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -155 (57% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Pfaadt's 80% first-inning shutout rate over 10 starts is the standout number here, and Yamamoto backs him with a solid 68% NRFI mark. But Chase Field's 106 run factor and the Dodgers' top-10 first-inning offense (33%) keep this from tilting cleanly toward NRFI. The model's 48% scoreless call sits right on the book's 50%, making it a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Brandon Pfaadt's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.