NRFI Results

Cade Cavalli brings a tidy 73% first-inning scoreless rate into Truist Park, but his last five have all come up clean, and JR Ritchie sits close behind at 71%. Both offenses cut against those arms, though — Washington scores in the opening frame 34% of the time (4th-most in MLB) and Atlanta 32% — which is why this one grades out as a near-even 47%.

• Coin flip — Cade Cavalli's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Toronto's offense is the tension-breaker here, plating a first-inning run in just 22% of games and only 15% against lefties like Matthew Liberatore, who carries a 55% NRFI rate. Max Scherzer's shakier 43% first-inning scoreless mark keeps this even, though, especially with the Cardinals scoring early 25% of the time versus righties. The model's 49% edge over the book's 48% barely tips the scale.

• Coin flip — Matthew Liberatore's 55% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 15% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Gavin Williams brings the sharpest first-inning résumé here, posting a 71% NRFI rate across 21 starts, while Merrill Kelly counters at 63%. Cleveland's offense rarely gets going early, scoring in the first just 25% of the time, though Arizona's bats are slightly livelier at 31%. With Progressive Field's 94 run factor suppressing scoring, the model and market land in step at 53% NRFI.

• Coin flip — Gavin Williams' 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 25% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Griffin Jax brings a strong 76% NRFI mark across 17 starts into Tropicana Field, and Anthony Kay isn't far behind at 68% with five straight clean first innings. Neither lineup does much early — the White Sox plate a first-inning run just 24% of the time against lefties. Still, the model sits at 50%, a touch under the book's 53%, so this reads as a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -134 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Chase Burns has been a first-inning wall in Cincinnati, posting an 89% NRFI mark across 19 starts, and the Reds themselves plate a run in the opening frame just 27% of the time. Working against that is Great American's hitter-friendly 106 park factor and a Pirates lineup that scores early 37% of the time versus righties, keeping this one squarely a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Chase Burns' 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Both starters own elite first-inning numbers, with Walbert Urena stretching a perfect 5-for-5 NRFI over his last five and sitting at 88% on the year, while Jacob Misiorowski checks in at 84%. The tension comes from the Angels' bats, who plate a first-inning run in a league-high 36% of games. That clash lands this one at a genuine coin flip, with the model's 52% just shy of the book's 57%.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 36% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -157 (57% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Two strong first-inning arms clash here: Keider Montero's 88% NRFI rate across 17 starts and Gage Jump's 83% over 12 give this a scoreless tilt. What keeps it from a clean lean is Sutter Health Park's hefty 117 run factor, plus Detroit's lineup that puts up a first-inning run 33% of the time. The model's 48% scoreless leaves it a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Keider Montero's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +115 (44% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

George Kirby's 68% NRFI mark and T-Mobile Park's run-suppressing 83 factor both tilt this toward a quiet first, but Minnesota's bats complicate things — they plate a run in the opening frame 35% of the time, third-most in MLB. Taj Bradley checks in at a more modest 60%, and with the model at 52% against a 56% market read, it's genuinely a toss-up.

• Coin flip — George Kirby's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 35% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -146 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Jake Bennett has kept the first inning scoreless in all 11 of his starts, including his last five, which pulls hard toward NRFI. But he's facing a Dodgers lineup that plates a run in the first 32% of the time, 10th-most in MLB, at a slightly hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium. With the model at 52% scoreless against the book's 51%, this one sits right on the fence.

• Coin flip — Jake Bennett's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.