NRFI Results

George Kirby's 72% NRFI mark over 18 starts is the anchor here, and Seattle's bats have crossed the plate in the first just 27% of the time. The catch is Kumar Rocker, whose 41% NRFI rate is far shakier, keeping this near a true toss-up. The model's 49% sits just under the book's 53%, so there's no strong edge either way.

• Coin flip — George Kirby's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Mitch Keller's 74% first-inning NRFI rate over 19 starts is the strongest signal here, and he draws a Diamondbacks lineup that plates a run in the first just 31% of the time. The wrinkle is Merrill Kelly, whose 61% NRFI mark trends softer, and the Pirates score early 36% against righties. The book's 63% NRFI sits well ahead of the model's 48%.

• Coin flip — Mitch Keller's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +2 (63% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Zack Wheeler is the anchor here, sporting an 88% NRFI mark across 16 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five outings, and Miami plates a first-inning run in just 30% of games. But Tyler Phillips is shakier at 70%, and Philadelphia's bats bring a top-10 first-inning offense, keeping this one right around a 50/50 split.

• Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Scherzer has been shaky out of the gate, posting a 33% NRFI mark across six starts and allowing a first-inning run in four of his last five. That's a problem against a Nationals lineup that scores in the opening frame 35% of the time, third-most in MLB. Eddy Yean's blank season slate is the big unknown here, which is why this stays close to a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Max Scherzer's 33% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 35% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +108 (45% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Martin Perez brings the steadier first-inning profile here, sitting scoreless in 73% of his 15 starts and four of his last five, which helps offset Zac Thornton's shaky 50% NRFI mark across just four outings. The Braves have dented opposing lefties in only 23% of first frames, and at pitcher-friendly Citi Field the model's 52% scoreless read barely nudges past the book — a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Martin Perez's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 31% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.

Max Fried has been elite in the opening frame, posting an 80% NRFI mark across 10 starts including a clean 5-for-5 in his last five, which anchors the Yankees' side. The other direction is shakier: Noah Schultz sits at just 58% NRFI and faces a New York lineup that scores first 34% of the time and 43% against lefties. Those competing signals leave this one near a coin flip at 48%.

• Coin flip — Max Fried's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 43% against left-handers.

Walbert Urena has been near-untouchable in the first frame, posting an 88% NRFI mark across 16 starts and holding the line in all five of his last outings. The complication is Houston's bats, who plate a run in the first 36% of the time — second-most in MLB — and bump that to 41% against righties. With Imai steadier than dominant at 69%, this one sits right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.