NRFI Results

Parker Messick has been nearly untouchable in opening frames, posting a 95% NRFI mark across 19 starts and keeping his slate clean in four of his last five. That's the anchor here, especially with Cleveland's bats scoring in the first just 24% of the time. Minnesota's Kendry Rojas is the wild card at 50% over a tiny two-start sample, which caps the confidence on this NRFI lean.

• NRFI lean — Parker Messick has worked a scoreless first in 95% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.

Kyle Bradish carries the profile here, sitting scoreless in the first in 89% of his 18 starts and holding that line in all five of his last outings. Boston's offense only strikes early 23% of the time, and dips to 21% against righties, which stacks nicely in Bradish's favor. Even with Fenway's 108 park factor, the arms tilt this one NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Kyle Bradish has worked a scoreless first in 89% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 11% against left-handers.

• NRFI lean — Chase Burns (94% NRFI) and Luis Castillo (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 59%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +105 (46% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.

Houston's bats bring the intrigue here, plating a first-inning run in 36% of games — 4th-most in MLB — and 40% against righties like Tatsuya Imai. Imai himself has posted just a 67% NRFI clip over 12 starts, and cracked in three of his last five. Tyler Phillips has been the sturdier arm at 78% NRFI, but the model's 47% scoreless read tilts this slightly toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Coors Field and its 128 park factor do the heavy lifting here, and both offenses arrive hot — Washington puts up a first-inning run in 36% of games (3rd-most in MLB) while Colorado sits 7th at 35%. Mikolas and Lorenzen carry decent 71% and 63% NRFI marks, but each has stumbled recently, and the model's 37% scoreless number tilts this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Washington Nationals score early in 36% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +154 (37% implied); the model has it 36%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

Chase Field's run-friendly 106 park factor sets the backdrop, and Jack Perkins hasn't helped his cause with a coin-flip 50% NRFI rate that's dipped to 3-for-5 over his last five starts. Kohl Drake's blank season slate leaves plenty of uncertainty for Arizona's side. With both offenses only scoring in the first around 30% of the time, though, it's a slim YRFI lean at best.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Arizona Diamondbacks score early in 31% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +105 (46% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Drew Rasmussen has kept the first frame clean in 76% of his 17 starts, including four of his last five, which normally screams NRFI. The wrinkle is Tampa Bay's offense, one of the game's best at striking early — scoring in the first 35% of the time — lined up against Kevin Gausman, who's posted a middling 63% NRFI rate. That tension leaves this a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 35% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -138 (55% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Walker Buehler's 79% first-inning shutdown rate is the loudest number on this card, and San Diego's bats back him up — they score in the opening frame just 23% of the time, dead last in MLB. The problem is Reynaldo Lopez, whose 25% NRFI mark drags the other side down against a Braves lineup that plates a first-inning run 32% of the time. That tug-of-war lands right at 50/50.

• Coin flip — Walker Buehler's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105.5 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Brandon Sproat brings the sturdiest number to American Family Field, sitting on a 67% NRFI rate across 15 starts, but he's been shakier lately with scoreless firsts in just 2 of his last 5. The Mets' Zac Thornton is the flip side at 33% NRFI, and with both lineups slow to strike early — Milwaukee scoring in the first just 28% of the time, New York 27% — the model lands right on the fence at 52% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Brandon Sproat's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 28% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

• Coin flip — Tyler Mahle's 57% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108.5 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Kumar Rocker's 38% first-inning clean rate over 16 starts is the drag here, and it clashes with the strengths on the other side: Noah Schultz has posted a 64% NRFI mark and the Rangers plate a run in the first just 25% of the time against lefties. Globe Life's 94 run factor nudges things down slightly, leaving this a genuine toss-up at 47%.

• Coin flip — Noah Schultz's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

• Coin flip — Framber Valdez's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -123.5 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +0.5 (64% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.