NRFI Results

Wheeler has stranded the first inning in all five of his last outings and posts an elite 87% NRFI, so the arms clearly favor a quiet start. But the model still splits this at 50%, and it's easy to see why — both offenses, the Dodgers and Phillies, plate a first-inning run about a third of the time, and Citizens Bank Park nudges scoring slightly above average.

• Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Drew Rasmussen has kept the first frame clean in 76% of his 17 starts, including four of his last five, which normally screams NRFI. The wrinkle is Tampa Bay's offense, one of the game's best at striking early — scoring in the first 35% of the time — lined up against Kevin Gausman, who's posted a middling 63% NRFI rate. That tension leaves this a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 35% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -138 (55% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Walker Buehler's 79% first-inning shutdown rate is the loudest number on this card, and San Diego's bats back him up — they score in the opening frame just 23% of the time, dead last in MLB. The problem is Reynaldo Lopez, whose 25% NRFI mark drags the other side down against a Braves lineup that plates a first-inning run 32% of the time. That tug-of-war lands right at 50/50.

• Coin flip — Walker Buehler's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105.5 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Brandon Sproat brings the sturdiest number to American Family Field, sitting on a 67% NRFI rate across 15 starts, but he's been shakier lately with scoreless firsts in just 2 of his last 5. The Mets' Zac Thornton is the flip side at 33% NRFI, and with both lineups slow to strike early — Milwaukee scoring in the first just 28% of the time, New York 27% — the model lands right on the fence at 52% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Brandon Sproat's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 28% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Tyler Mahle brings the steadier first-inning arm here, sitting at 57% NRFI over 14 starts, while Kansas City's Luinder Avila trails at just 44%. That gap is offset by the Royals' bats scoring in the opening frame 33% of the time against a Giants offense that plates a first-inning run in only 23% of games. With the model at 47% and the book at 49%, it reads as a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Tyler Mahle's 57% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108.5 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Kumar Rocker's 38% first-inning clean rate over 16 starts is the drag here, and it clashes with the strengths on the other side: Noah Schultz has posted a 64% NRFI mark and the Rangers plate a run in the first just 25% of the time against lefties. Globe Life's 94 run factor nudges things down slightly, leaving this a genuine toss-up at 47%.

• Coin flip — Noah Schultz's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Framber Valdez is the clear anchor here, posting a 72% first-inning shutout rate that lines up nicely against a Cubs lineup scoring in the opening frame just 17% of the time versus lefties. The wrinkle is on the other side: David Peterson has escaped a clean first in only 30% of his starts, and Detroit's bats rank eighth in MLB at first-inning scoring. Those competing forces leave this one a genuine toss-up at 49%.

• Coin flip — Framber Valdez's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -123.5 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Walbert Urena has been elite in the opening frame for the Angels, posting an 87% NRFI mark across 15 starts, and the Cardinals only plate a first-inning run 27% of the time against righties. The gap comes from the other side: Liberatore sits at 61% NRFI, and the model's 48% scoreless read lands well under the book's 64%.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +0.5 (64% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.