NRFI Results

Two excellent first-inning arms anchor this one: Gerrit Cole sits at 83% NRFI across six starts, while Jake Bennett has gone a perfect 5-for-5. The tension comes from the Yankees' bats, who score in the opening frame 38% of the time — second-most in MLB — and a hefty 52% against lefties. Throw in Fenway's 108 run factor and the model lands right at a 49% coin flip.

Cal Quantrill's 100% NRFI mark comes from a single start, so there's almost nothing to lean on there. Dylan Cease offers a steadier read at 54% over 13 outings, but both Toronto (23% first-inning scoring) and Texas (28%) rank in the bottom third for early offense. With the model and book aligned at 51%, this one sits squarely on the fence.

Tim Mayza's two-start sample makes this hard to read with any conviction, which is exactly why the model lands at 49% — a near coin-flip that barely edges the book's 48%. Christian Scott has been steadier with a 56% NRFI rate and four scoreless first innings in his last five, but the Phillies' bats rank 8th in MLB for first-inning scoring and put up runs early in 35% of games.

Davis Martin has kept the first frame clean in all five of his last five starts and posts an 86% NRFI mark over 14 outings, while Michael Wacha brings his own 80% rate to Rate Field. Both offenses score in the opening inning just 30% of the time, yet the model still lands at 53% scoreless — close enough to call this one a genuine coin flip.

Chase Burns has been nearly untouchable in the opening frame, posting a 93% NRFI mark across 14 starts, and Jared Jones isn't far behind at 80%. The catch is Pittsburgh's bats, who plate a first-inning run more than any team in baseball (40%, 43% versus righties). That collision between elite arms and a hot lineup keeps this one close to a coin flip at 52%.

Both Jose Cabrera and Cole Sulser carry spotless 100% first-inning marks, but those rest on a single start apiece, so there's little to lean on here. Tampa Bay's bats are the bigger wildcard, scoring in the opening frame 38% of the time against righties — fourth-most in MLB. With Arizona's offense quieter at 25% versus right-handers, this one sits right at a 51% coin flip.

Foster Griffin has been stingy out of the gate, posting an 80% NRFI mark across 15 starts and going scoreless in his last five first innings. The Orioles' offense backs that up, scoring in the opening frame just 22% of the time and only 14% against lefties. The flip side is Washington's bats, which strike early in 33% of games, leaving this one a near coin flip at 52%.

Slade Cecconi's 67% NRFI rate over 15 starts is the strongest arm on the mound here, and Cleveland's offense ranks among the quietest early, plating a first-inning run just 24% of the time. The pull toward NRFI comes from Seattle's bats, who score in the first 35% of games — sixth-most in MLB — against Logan Gilbert's more middling 53% mark. That tension lands this one near a coin flip.

The Peterson-Harrison split is what makes this one so tough to call: David Peterson has posted a measly 14% first-inning scoreless rate over seven starts, while Kyle Harrison sits at a sturdy 85% across 13. With the Cubs' bats waking up in the first just 19% of the time but Milwaukee's lineup more dangerous at 32%, it's no surprise the model lands on a 52% coin flip.

Mike Paredes has kept the first inning scoreless in all three of his starts, though that's a small sample working against a Twins-friendly hitting context. Michael Lorenzen brings a solid 73% NRFI rate for Colorado, but Minnesota plate up scoring in the first 35% of the time — fifth-most in MLB. Those clashing signals leave this one a true coin flip at 48%.

Ryan Gusto carries a tidy 75% first-inning shutout rate over his four starts, and the Cardinals only push a run across in the opening frame 29% of the time — 25% against righties. The offsetting pull comes from Andre Pallante, whose 60% NRFI mark is shakier, against a Marlins bunch that scores early in 33% of games. That balance lands this one squarely at a coin flip.

Yamamoto has stranded the first inning in 4 of his last 5 and posts a 62% NRFI mark, which helps offset a Dodgers lineup that plates a run in the first 34% of the time — ninth-most in MLB. The flip side is Randy Vasquez, who's been shaky lately at just 1-for-5 in his recent starts, even with the pitcher-friendly Petco backdrop. Genuine coin flip at 51%.