NRFI Results
First-inning leans for June 24, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
339-276
615 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
5-1 on 6 leans
NRFI 3-0 · YRFI 2-1
NRFI Leans
3
Both starters at Citi Field have shut the door early lately — Javier Assad has held NRFI in 4 of his last 5, while Nolan McLean has gone a perfect 5-for-5. It helps that the Cubs put up a first-inning run just 20% of the time, 29th in MLB, and the Mets aren't much better at 28%. The model's 56% edges the book's 54% toward the under.
Shota Imanaga has been a first-inning specialist, posting a 79% NRFI rate across 14 starts while keeping it clean in four of his last five. That's the strongest pull toward NRFI here, especially with the Cubs' offense scoring in the opening frame just 11% of the time against lefties. Sean Manaea's two-start sample keeps the confidence modest, but the lean is toward zeros at Citi Field.
Martin Perez has been quietly excellent in the opening frame, posting a 73% NRFI mark across 11 starts and stranding the board in five of his last five. That matters against a Padres lineup that scores in the first just 21% of the time, and only 19% versus lefties. With JP Sears still without a season start, confidence stays modest, but the edge points toward a quiet first at Petco.
YRFI Leans
3
Eury Perez has wobbled lately, escaping a scoreless first in just two of his last five starts, and that's a big reason the model sees this leaning YRFI at 46% scoreless. The Marlins themselves put up a first-inning run 34% of the time, 10th-most in MLB, which adds pressure against Jacob deGrom. With the book sitting at 57% NRFI, there's a notable gap here.
Coors Field and its 128 park factor do the heavy lifting here, which is why this leans YRFI despite two starters posting solid first-inning marks — Ranger Suarez at 77% NRFI, Kyle Freeland at 67%. Colorado plates a first-inning run 40% of the time against lefties, and that thin-air environment keeps the slate at a near coin flip, with the model pegging a scoreless first at just 46%.
Skubal and Weathers each sit around 63-64% NRFI, but the bats tell a different story here. The Yankees rank 3rd in MLB for first-inning scoring and have plated a run in 50% of games against lefties, which is a tough draw for Weathers despite his solid rate. With New York's offense leaning toward early offense, the model's 45% scoreless mark nudges this toward YRFI.
Coin Flips
10
Bibee's solid 67% first-inning shutout rate gives Cleveland an edge on one side, but Fedde's even 50% NRFI mark over eight starts is the wobble that keeps this even. With the White Sox plating a first-inning run just 27% of the time against righties and Cleveland's offense quiet at 22%, both bats lean dormant — yet two pitchers cooling at 2-for-5 in their last five keep it a true toss-up.
Jose Soriano's 60% first-inning hold over 15 starts gives the Angels the steadier arm here, and Baltimore's offense ranks among the league's quietest in the opening frame, plating a run just 22% of the time. The catch is Trey Gibson, who's posted a scoreless first in only 40% of his five starts and has stumbled in the inning twice over his last five. With those signals pulling opposite directions, this one sits right at a coin flip.
Both starters bring elite first-inning track records to the Trop, with Noah Cameron at 79% NRFI across 14 outings and Griffin Jax close behind at 80% over 10. That pitching strength tilts things toward a quiet frame, but Tampa Bay's offense scores in the first 35% of the time — 7th-most in baseball — which keeps this one a genuine coin flip near the model's 51% scoreless mark.
Two of the stingiest first-inning arms around square off here: Bryan Woo carries an 86% NRFI mark over 14 starts, while Braxton Ashcraft tops him at 93%. The wrinkle is Pittsburgh's lineup, which plates a first-inning run in 39% of games — the most in MLB and 43% against righties. That clash of elite arms and aggressive bats lands this one right at a 50/50 split.
Aaron Nola brings a sturdy 86% NRFI mark across 14 starts, including four scoreless first frames in his last five, which is the firmest anchor on the board here. The catch is Carson Palmquist, who has yet to throw a season start, leaving his side of this equation a guess. With Nationals Park playing slightly hitter-friendly at 102, the model's 48% scoreless read stays a genuine toss-up.
Trey Yesavage and Mike Burrows both bring strong first-inning resumes to Rogers Centre, sitting at 70% and 69% NRFI respectively. The wrinkle is Houston's bats — they put up first-inning runs 38% of the time, second-most in MLB, which keeps Burrows working against a tough lineup. With Toronto scoring early in just 23% of games, this lands as a true coin flip at 49%.
Drohan's been a wall in the opening frame, sitting at an 80% NRFI clip across his five starts, but the rest of this one muddies the picture. Lowder counters at just a 50% first-inning hold, and Milwaukee's bats plate a run in the first 33% of the time against right-handers — enough to keep Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor in play. A genuine coin flip at 47%.
Shohei Ohtani has been spotless in the first inning, posting a clean frame in all 12 of his starts and the last five running. The tension comes from the other side: Joe Ryan sits at just 67% NRFI, and the Dodgers' bats score in the opening frame 36% of the time against righties. Target Field's 104 run factor doesn't help either, keeping this one a true coin flip.
Matthew Liberatore brings a 57% first-inning scoreless rate over 14 starts to the Busch mound, but the bigger story is the unknown across from him: Arizona's Mitch Bratt hasn't logged a single big-league start yet. With the Cardinals' bats scoring early in just 30% of games and the model nudging NRFI to 49%, this one truly sits on the fence given how thin the starter read is.
Gage Jump has kept the first frame clean in 80% of his five starts, and the Giants score early just 23% of the time — and only 30% against lefties — which should help his cause. Tyler Mahle's been shakier at 60% NRFI, and Oakland puts up first-inning runs in 33% of games. With the pitcher's edge offsetting the bats, this one sits right at a 52% coin flip.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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