NRFI Results
First-inning leans for June 22, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
339-274
613 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
2-3 on 5 leans
NRFI 1-0 · YRFI 1-3
NRFI Leans
1
Michael King has been nearly untouchable in opening frames, holding a 92% NRFI mark across 13 starts, and Grant Holmes brings his own 75% rate into Petco. The Padres' bats add to the lean, scoring in the first just 22% of the time — among the quietest in baseball. With Petco's run factor sitting at 94, the model's 55% scoreless figure feels well-supported.
YRFI Leans
4
The Yankees' bats drive the YRFI lean here, ranking second in MLB at scoring in the first and posting a 52% first-inning rate against lefties like Framber Valdez. Valdez has been steady at 64% NRFI on the year but only cleared the first scoreless in three of his last five starts. Gerrit Cole's 80% NRFI mark is the lone factor pulling the other way.
Brady Singer is the soft spot here, sitting at just a 38% first-inning scoreless rate over 13 starts, and he runs into a Brewers lineup that scores in the opening frame 34% of the time — ninth-most in MLB. Pair that with Great American Ball Park's run-friendly 106 park factor, and the lean tilts toward YRFI.
Neither starter inspires much first-inning confidence here, with Eric Lauer posting a 44% NRFI mark over nine starts and Zebby Matthews sitting at 43% across seven. The Twins lean into that, scoring in the opening frame 35% of the time and jumping to 41% against lefties like Lauer. Target Field's 104 run factor only adds to the YRFI tilt.
Coors Field, with its 128 run factor, is doing most of the heavy lifting here, because the arms suggest a quieter inning — Jake Bennett has thrown a clean first in all four of his starts, and Feltner sits at 67% NRFI. The catch is Colorado's bats jump to scoring in 42% of first innings against lefties like Bennett, which nudges this toward YRFI.
Coin Flips
7
Both starters bring strong opening-frame numbers to the Trop, with Michael Wacha sitting at 79% NRFI across 14 starts and Drew Rasmussen close behind at 77% over 13. The hesitation comes from recent form — Rasmussen has gone 4-of-5 lately and Wacha 3-of-5 — and the Rays light up the first frame in 34% of games. That tension lands this one at a true coin flip.
Both Tylers have kept the first frame clean — Alexander in his lone start, Phillips in three of four — but the samples are thin enough to keep this honest. Miami's bats are the wild card, scoring in the first 35% of the time (6th-most in MLB), while the Rangers sit quiet at 27%. At loanDepot park, it tilts toward a true coin flip near 48%.
Foster Griffin brings the steadier track record here, with a 79% first-inning scoreless rate over 14 starts and a clean 5-for-5 across his last five. The tricky part is Tim Mayza's lone start — that 100% NRFI mark comes from a single outing, so there's little to lean on. With both lineups scoring early under 36% of the time, the model's 48% scoreless figure barely nudges the book's 46%.
Hunter Brown has kept the first frame clean in both of his starts, but with just two games on the ledger, that perfect mark deserves a heavy dose of skepticism. The bigger swing factor is Houston's bats, which plate a run in the first 36% of the time — third-most in MLB — against a Dylan Cease who sits at 58% NRFI. Genuine toss-up here.
Gavin Williams brings a 64% first-inning clean rate into Rate Field, and his counterpart Anthony Kay isn't far behind at 58%, so the arms tilt this toward a scoreless frame. But neither lineup punishes anyone early — the White Sox plate a first-inning run just 32% of the time and Cleveland only 24% — leaving the model at a true 50/50. The book's 97% NRFI looks aggressive by comparison.
Merrill Kelly and Andre Pallante land in nearly the same spot, posting 58% and 57% first-inning scoreless rates, and both have been sharp lately with 3-of-5 and 4-of-5 clean openers. With Arizona's bats plating a first-inning run just 27% of the time and St. Louis at 31%, neither offense tilts this at Busch Stadium, leaving it a genuine coin flip.
Kyle Bradish has stranded the first inning in 86% of his 14 starts, a strong NRFI marker that anchors Baltimore's side against an Angels lineup that puts up a first-inning run just 34% of the time. The pushback comes from Sam Aldegheri's thin three-start sample (67% NRFI), keeping this closer to a true coin flip at 52% scoreless.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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