NRFI Results

Patrick Corbin has kept the first frame clean in 77% of his 13 starts, including all five of his last five, and he draws a Cubs lineup that scores in the opening inning just 11% of the time against lefties. Colin Rea adds a solid 64% NRFI rate at pitcher-friendly Wrigley, which is why the model's 57% scoreless read edges the market's 48%.

Walker Buehler has stranded the first inning in 86% of his 14 starts, and he's facing a Texas lineup that plates a first-inning run just 26% of the time against righties. The Padres aren't much of a threat early either, scoring in the opening frame in only 23% of games and 20% versus lefties like Gore. With Globe Life Field suppressing run scoring (94 park factor), the lean tilts toward NRFI.

Detroit's bats are the headline here, scoring in the first inning 35% of the time — seventh-most in the majors. With Sean Newcomb still without a season start on the mound, there's real uncertainty for the White Sox side, and Troy Melton's 50% NRFI mark over just four outings doesn't inspire much confidence either. The model nudges toward YRFI at 47% scoreless.

The Yankees' first-inning bats are the swing factor here, plating a run in 38% of games — second-most in MLB — and that climbs to 50% against lefties like Andrew Abbott, who carries a middling 57% NRFI mark. Will Warren's strong 77% NRFI rate keeps Cincinnati's quiet offense in check, but New York's early production tilts this slightly toward YRFI.

Coors Field and its 128 park factor do a lot of the talking here, which helps explain the 39% scoreless number despite Paul Skenes carrying a sturdy 79% NRFI rate. The bigger pull toward YRFI is Sugano, who sits at just 62% NRFI, facing a Pittsburgh lineup that scores in the first inning more than any team in baseball and 43% against righties.

Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is the real story here, inflating run potential even with two strong arms on the mound. Walbert Urena (82% NRFI) and J.T. Ginn (85% NRFI) both protect early frames well, but the Angels light up the first inning in 35% of games — sixth-most in MLB — which is enough to nudge this toward YRFI.

Chase Field's hitter-friendly 106 run factor sets the stage, and neither starter inspires much first-inning confidence — Taj Bradley sits at just 50% NRFI across 12 starts, while Zac Gallen's 43% mark is even shakier. Minnesota's bats add to the lean, scoring in the opening frame 34% of the time (9th-most in MLB). The model's 42% scoreless read points firmly toward YRFI.