NRFI Results
First-inning leans for June 18, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
339-276
615 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
2-2 on 4 leans
NRFI 1-1 · YRFI 1-1
NRFI Leans
2
Parker Messick has kept the first inning scoreless in all 14 of his starts, including each of his last five, and that's the anchor of this NRFI lean. The big counterweight is Milwaukee's lineup, which puts up a first-inning run 42% of the time against lefties — third-most in MLB. With Cleveland's bats quiet early (24%), the model lands at 55%, right in line with the book.
Bryan Woo has been about as reliable as it gets out of the gate, posting first-inning zeros in 85% of his 13 starts — including all five of his last five. He's also facing a Baltimore lineup that scores in the first just 21% of the time, 28th in MLB. The pitcher-friendly dimensions at T-Mobile Park (83 run factor) only reinforce the NRFI lean.
YRFI Leans
2
The Yankees' bats are the story here, posting first-inning runs in 39% of games — second-most in MLB — and jumping to 52% against left-handers like Ryan Weathers. That platoon edge matters because Weathers has held a first-inning scoreless mark just 62% of the time. Bryan Hudson's 75% NRFI rate offers some pushback, but New York's offense tilts this toward YRFI.
Coin Flips
4
Trey Yesavage has kept the first frame clean in 67% of his nine starts, the firmest plate in this one, and Boston's bats rank 30th in first-inning scoring, dipping to 16% against righties. The counterweight is Sonny Gray, who's been scored on early in four of his last five outings at hitter-friendly Fenway. The numbers land near even, with a slight 52% NRFI tilt.
Jack Leiter takes a 69% first-inning NRFI mark into this one, and Joe Ryan isn't far behind at 64%, giving Globe Life Field a pitching edge that's reflected in its 94 run factor. Texas pushing a run across in the first just 28% of the time tilts things further toward quiet, but Minnesota's 34% first-inning scoring rate keeps it a genuine 50/50 call.
Aaron Nola has been stingy early, posting a 92% NRFI mark across 13 starts and holding the line in all five of his last outings. Sean Manaea brings a clean first-inning record too, though it's just a one-start sample that tempers any confidence. Both lineups rank middling at putting runs on the board early, but the book's 61% NRFI sits well above the model's near coin-flip 51%.
Noah Cameron is the standout here, posting an 85% first-inning NRFI rate across 13 starts and a perfect 5-for-5 in his last five outings. The catch is that the Cardinals have scored in the first 43% of the time against lefties, which keeps this from being a clean NRFI. With Liberatore's 62% mark on the other side, the model lands right on a 50/50 split.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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