NRFI Results

Wheeler is the steadying force here, sitting down opponents in the first inning 78% of the time across nine starts. The wild card is Ryan Gusto, whose 50% NRFI rate comes from just two starts, leaving the Marlins side hard to trust either way. With Philadelphia's lineup scoring in the first just 31% of the time, the model's 48% scoreless read lands squarely in coin-flip territory.

Andrew Alvarez has kept the first inning clean in both of his two starts, but a sample that thin makes that 100% NRFI mark hard to lean on hard. Add Mitch Spence with zero MLB starts on the board for Kansas City, and there's little track record on either arm. With Washington scoring early in 34% of games against the Royals' 29%, this one sits right on the fence at 48%.

Chase Burns has kept the first frame clean in 92% of his 12 starts, while Tobias Myers is a perfect 2-for-2 — but that tiny sample is exactly why the model only nudges to 52% scoreless. Neither offense does much early, with Cincinnati scoring in just 26% of first innings and the Mets at 30%. Great American's hitter-friendly 106 park factor keeps this a true toss-up.

Dustin May has been steady out of the gate for St. Louis, posting a 58% NRFI mark across 12 starts and keeping the first frame clean in four of his last five. The Padres' offense backs that up, plating a first-inning run just 21% of the time. The wild card is Wandy Peralta, who has no starts on record yet — too thin to read, which is why this one sits at a true coin flip.

MacKenzie Gore has kept the first frame clean in 69% of his 13 starts, but he's wobbled lately with scoreless first innings in just three of his last five. Mike Paredes carries a perfect NRFI mark, though that comes from a single start, so there's little to lean on. With a pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field at a 94 run factor, it's essentially a 51% toss-up.

Two starters who don't allow much early — Walbert Urena's 90% NRFI rate and Ryne Nelson's 85% mark, with Nelson clean in all five of his last five — push this toward a quiet frame. But Chase Field's 106 run factor and the Angels' first-inning offense, which scores 37% of the time against righties, balance things out to a true coin flip.

Nick Martinez has been a brick wall in the opening frame, posting a 92% NRFI rate across 12 starts, but the other side of this one is shakier. Eric Lauer sits at just 50% NRFI over eight starts and faces a Tampa Bay lineup that scores first 34% of the time and ticks up to 39% against lefties. The model's 47% scoreless read lands well under the book's 62%, making this closer to a true toss-up.