NRFI Results
First-inning leans for June 13, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
340-277
617 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
3-3 on 6 leans
NRFI 0-2 · YRFI 3-1
NRFI Leans
2
Baltimore's bats rank 29th in MLB at scoring in the first inning, lighting up the board just 19% of the time, and San Diego isn't much better at 20th. Both starters carry matching 67% NRFI marks — Randy Vasquez over 12 outings, Trey Gibson across his three. With two quiet offenses meeting steady arms, the model's 56% scoreless read edges past the market's 45%.
Ben Brown brings the strongest signal here, posting a scoreless first in 83% of his six starts, and he's facing a Giants lineup that scores in the opening frame just 21% of the time against righties. The other way, Trevor McDonald's 71% NRFI mark meets a Cubs offense ranked dead last in first-inning scoring. Both quiet bats nudge this to a 58% NRFI lean.
YRFI Leans
4
Minnesota's bats are the X-factor here, posting first-inning runs in 40% of their games against lefties — and they'll see Matthew Liberatore, whose 58% NRFI rate is the more vulnerable of the two starters. Connor Prielipp's 67% mark offers some counterbalance, but Target Field's 104 run factor and the Cardinals' 42% rate versus southpaws nudge this toward an early run.
Pittsburgh's bats are the engine here — the Pirates plate a first-inning run in 39% of games, second-most in MLB, and that climbs to 44% against right-handers like Lake Bachar. Bachar's spotless NRFI mark comes on just two starts, so there's little to lean on, while Bubba Chandler has been scored on early in two of his last five. That tilts things YRFI.
Seattle's bats are the swing factor here — they put up a first-inning run in 36% of games, fourth-most in MLB, and 35% against righties like Cade Cavalli, whose 69% NRFI rate trails Luis Castillo's 73%. Both starters have been solid in the early frame, but with Nationals Park playing slightly hitter-friendly at 102, the model gives a slight YRFI edge at 47% scoreless.
Two of the most active first-inning offenses in baseball collide here, with the Angels and Rays both ranking top-six in opening-frame scoring. Jose Soriano's modest 54% NRFI rate over 13 starts is the bigger concern for the home side, and he's posted a first-inning run in three of his last five outings. The model's 44% scoreless figure tilts this toward YRFI.
Coin Flips
9
Cam Schlittler has been near-untouchable in the first frame, posting a 92% NRFI mark and slamming the door in all five of his last five starts. The pull toward YRFI comes from his opponent: the Yankees lead MLB in first-inning scoring at 40%, a real threat to Kevin Gausman, who's faltered with two clean firsts over his last five. That tension lands this one at a true 50/50.
Michael Soroka brings the steadier first-inning profile here, sitting at 69% NRFI across 13 starts with four clean openers in his last five. The pull toward a scoreless frame comes from both lineups too: Cincinnati scores in the first just 25% of the time, Arizona 27%. The counterweight is Great American's 106 run factor and Rhett Lowder's coin-flip 50% NRFI, which is why the model lands right at 49%.
Martin Perez has stranded the first inning in 67% of his nine starts this year, including four of his last five, which lends the Braves some scoreless cushion. The problem is Sean Manaea hasn't thrown a first inning all season, so there's no read on the Mets' side. That blind spot, plus Citi Field's slightly run-suppressing 96 park factor, leaves this one a genuine coin flip.
Cantillo brings a strong 77% NRFI mark across his 13 starts, and Skubal isn't far behind at 67%, giving Progressive Field two lefties who routinely keep the board clean early. Cleveland's bats have struggled to strike first, plating a run in just 25% of openers and only 32% against lefties. Still, the model lands at 53% scoreless — basically a toss-up that slightly trails the book's 54%.
Ranger Suarez has stranded the first frame in 75% of his 12 starts, and Boston's bats only push across a run in the opening inning 17% of the time against righties like deGrom. That's a strong NRFI tilt on one side, but deGrom's modest 54% first-inning success keeps Texas a live threat. The clash of those profiles lands this one squarely at a 50/50 flip.
Sean Burke has been excellent at keeping the first inning clean, posting a 78% NRFI rate across his nine starts, and he draws a Dodgers lineup that puts up a first-inning run just 31% of the time. The question mark is Yamamoto, whose 55% NRFI mark dips against a White Sox club scoring early in 31% of games — enough uncertainty to leave this one near even at 49%.
Noah Cameron has been outstanding in the opening frame, posting an 83% NRFI mark across 12 starts, and the Royals only push a run across in the first 29% of the time. The counterweight is Houston's bat: the Astros plate a first-inning run in 37% of games, third-most in MLB. Mike Burrows' 67% NRFI is solid but less airtight, leaving this one balanced near a true coin flip at 48%.
Aaron Nola has been nearly untouchable early, posting a 92% NRFI rate over 12 starts and holding the line in each of his last five outings. The wild card is Shane Drohan, whose 67% NRFI mark comes in just three starts, and Milwaukee's bats put up first-inning runs 35% of the time. That uncertainty pulls this back to a true coin flip at 51% scoreless.
Kyle Freeland brings a 70% NRFI mark across 10 starts into Las Vegas, which leans things quiet, but the big unknown is Joey Estes, who has no season starts on record. With Oakland scoring in the first just 31% of the time and Colorado at 32%, neither lineup forces the issue — though Estes' thin sample keeps confidence low and the model at a near coin-flip 49%.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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