NRFI Results
First-inning leans for October 4, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
353-283
636 graded
56%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 1 lean
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
1
Logan Henderson has kept the first clean in 89% of his 18 starts, including all of his last five, and Michael King sits at a sturdy 84% across 31. Add a park factor of 94 at American Family Field and a Padres lineup that scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time, and the model's 59% NRFI chance clears the market's 55%. Milwaukee's 30% first-inning scoring rate is the only real pushback.
- NRFI lean — Michael King (84% NRFI) and Logan Henderson (89%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 59%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
1
- Coin flip — Blake Snell's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 30% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -160.5 (58% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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