NRFI Results
First-inning leans for October 3, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
351-283
634 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
1-0 on 3 leans
NRFI 1-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
3
Parker Messick's 84% NRFI rate across 32 starts anchors this lean, and Progressive Field's 94 run factor only helps. Chicago's lineup scores in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, while Cleveland's does so just 28% of the time. Hagen Smith has made only one start, so confidence is low. The model's 55% scoreless chance sits a bit under the book's 58%.
- NRFI lean — Parker Messick has worked a scoreless first in 84% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -158.5 (58% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
Drew Rasmussen has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 29 starts, including all five of his latest, and that's the loudest signal here. Gerrit Cole is no slouch at 77%, though he's 3-for-5 lately, and Tropicana Field's 95 run factor leans toward suppression. The model's 55% NRFI matches the market exactly, so there's no disagreement to exploit.
- NRFI lean — Gerrit Cole (77% NRFI) and Drew Rasmussen (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Jacob Misiorowski has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 29 starts, and Robbie Ray isn't far behind at 79%, so both mounds favor zeroes at a park that plays a little pitcher-friendly (run factor 94). San Diego's offense scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time, which backs the 58% NRFI model number. Milwaukee's 37% mark against lefties keeps the lean modest against a 56% market.
- NRFI lean — Robbie Ray (79% NRFI) and Jacob Misiorowski (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -143 (56% implied); the model has it 58%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
1
Tarik Skubal's 68% NRFI rate over 25 starts, including 4 of his last 5, is the sturdy piece here, but Dylan Dodd has no starts this season, so the model has little to work with on the other side. Both lineups score in the first about 30% of the time, and Dodger Stadium's 102 park factor barely nudges things. The model's 49% scoreless chance sits just under the book's 52%, which makes this a toss-up.
- Coin flip — Tarik Skubal's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 30% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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