NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 30, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
350-283
633 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
3-0 on 3 leans
NRFI 2-0 · YRFI 1-0
NRFI Leans
2
Max Fried has been nearly untouchable early, with a 79% NRFI rate over 19 starts and a clean 5-for-5 lately at a neutral Yankee Stadium. The worry is Sonny Gray, whose 68% season mark hides a shaky 2-of-5 recent stretch, while Boston's lineup climbs to 31% against lefties. The model's 53% scoreless projection is a modest lean, softer than the book's 57%.
- NRFI lean — Sonny Gray (68% NRFI) and Max Fried (79%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -155 (57% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
Nick Pivetta has yet to allow a first-inning run in seven starts, and the Cubs' 27% first-inning scoring rate against righties doesn't scream breakout. Kevin Gausman brings a steadier 68% NRFI mark over 31 starts to face a Padres lineup that scores early just 23% of the time versus right-handers. Add Petco Park's 94 run factor, and the model's 56% scoreless projection makes sense.
- NRFI lean — Kevin Gausman (68% NRFI) and Nick Pivetta (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -128.5 (36% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
1
Tyler Mahle's 58% NRFI rate over 26 starts is the soft spot at Truist Park, and a Phillies lineup that scores in the first inning 32% of the time (7th-most in MLB) is well positioned to test it. Cristopher Sanchez's 75% mark keeps things from tilting further, but one leaky half-inning is enough, which is why the model sits at 47% scoreless against the book's 54%.
- YRFI lean — the Philadelphia Phillies push a first-inning run across in 32% of games (7th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
1
Hunter Brown has been nearly untouchable early, with an 84% NRFI rate over 19 starts and five straight clean firsts, while Sean Burke sits at a solid 77%. Both lineups bite, though: Houston scores in the 1st 34% of the time (36% vs. righties), and Chicago ranks sixth at 32%. At neutral Daikin Park, the model lands at a true 50%, below the book's 54% NRFI.
- Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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