NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 29, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
346-281
627 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 3 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
3
Jesus Luzardo has kept the first inning clean in 93% of his 28 starts, and Atlanta scores early just 24% of the time against lefties. The pressure point is Chris Sale, whose 85% NRFI rate faces a Phillies lineup that plates a first-inning run 39% of the time versus southpaws. That split holds the model to a modest 55% NRFI, a tick under the book's 58%.
- NRFI lean — Jesus Luzardo (93% NRFI) and Chris Sale (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -160 (58% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.
Cam Schlittler has been nearly untouchable early, posting an 88% NRFI rate over 32 starts and five straight clean first innings, and a Red Sox lineup that scores just 23% of the time against righties isn't built to break that. The soft spot is Payton Tolle's 69% mark against a Yankees group that plates first-inning runs 32% of the time versus lefties, holding the model to a modest 56% lean.
- NRFI lean — Payton Tolle (69% NRFI) and Cam Schlittler (88%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -175 (60% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Michael King has kept the first inning clean in 84% of his 31 starts, and he gets a Cubs lineup that scores early in just 28% of games. Petco Park's 94 run factor adds another quiet layer, while Matthew Boyd (76% NRFI) faces a Padres offense that plates a first-inning run only 25% of the time. The model's 58% scoreless estimate sits a few points above the market's 54%.
- NRFI lean — Matthew Boyd (76% NRFI) and Michael King (84%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 58%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
1
Hagen Smith's perfect NRFI mark comes from one start, and AJ Blubaugh hasn't made a season start at all, so neither pitcher gives the model much to lean on. Both offenses are first-inning threats, with Houston scoring in the 1st in 34% of games (3rd-most in MLB) and Chicago 32%, at a neutral Daikin Park. The model's 47% NRFI sits just under the market's 52%, a low-confidence toss-up.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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