NRFI Results

DJ Herz has exactly one start on record, and he allowed a first-inning run in it, too thin a sample to trust either way. Sean Manaea is steadier at 67% NRFI across 18 starts, but both lineups score early about 30% of the time and Nationals Park plays slightly hitter-friendly at 102, leaving the model at a low-confidence 48%.

• Coin flip — Sean Manaea's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -126.5 (98% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

Shane Baz has kept just one of his last five first innings clean, clouding his 57% NRFI mark over 30 starts at neutral Yankee Stadium. The Yankees cushion that, scoring early in only 25% of games against righties. Elmer Rodriguez's 67% looks sharper but rests on six starts, and Baltimore's 30% clip versus right-handers leaves the model at an even 50%, under the market's 54%.

• Coin flip — Elmer Rodriguez's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 28% first-inning bats (22nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Nick Martinez has blanked the first inning in 86% of his 29 starts and each of his last five, and Zack Wheeler sits behind him at 81%. Still, both the Rays and Phillies push a run across in the opening frame 32% of the time, and Citizens Bank Park plays hitter-friendly at 102. That leaves the model at a near-even 52% NRFI, five points shy of the market's 57%.

• Coin flip — Nick Martinez's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -153.5 (57% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Oracle Park's 94 run factor is the only solid anchor, since neither starter offers much of a track record: Jack Dreyer is 1-for-2 on NRFI starts, and Carson Seymour hasn't started a game this season. The Dodgers score first-inning runs in 32% of games against righties and the Giants in 30% against lefties, so the model sits near even at 51% NRFI, just below the book's 53%.

• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 30% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• Oracle Park suppresses scoring (run factor 94).

Max Scherzer's 41% NRFI rate across 17 starts drags down the scoreless case, especially against a Reds lineup that scores in the first 30% of the time versus righties. The bottom half pulls the other way: Brandon Williamson has blanked the first in 75% of eight starts, and Toronto scores early just 21% of the time against lefties. With a neutral Rogers Centre, the model settles at 50%.

• Coin flip — Brandon Williamson's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 27% first-inning bats (25th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Jared Jones brings an 85% NRFI rate across 20 starts and has kept the first inning clean in all of his last five, but Detroit's lineup pushes back as the fifth-most frequent first-inning scorer at 34%. River Ryan's perfect mark comes from a single start, so the model lands at just 51% scoreless at neutral Comerica Park, slightly below the book's 54%.

• Coin flip — Jared Jones' 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Parker Messick's 87% NRFI mark across 31 starts runs into a Royals lineup that scores in the first inning 34% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. The other half offsets it: Daniel Lynch IV has kept the opener clean in only 56% of nine starts, but Cleveland ranks 23rd at 28%. At a slightly hitter-friendly Kauffman, the model's 51% makes it a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Parker Messick's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski has kept the first inning scoreless in 82% of his 28 starts, and a Cardinals lineup that scores early just 24% of the time against righties shouldn't threaten that. The problem is the other half: Andre Pallante sits at 61% and has managed only one clean first in his last five. Even with American Family Field's 94 park factor, the model lands at 52%, short of the book's 59%.

• Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 30% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -163.5 (59% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Yusei Kikuchi has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 12 starts, and T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor helps too. The problem is Logan Gilbert, sitting at 60% NRFI over 30 starts and facing an Angels lineup that scores in the opening frame 34% of the time, third-most in MLB. Those forces cancel out, leaving the model at 52% NRFI, a shade under the market's 54%.

• Coin flip — Yusei Kikuchi's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.