NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 26, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
339-277
616 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-1 on 6 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-1
NRFI Leans
3
Blake Snell has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his eight starts, including each of his last five, and Oracle Park's 94 run factor only helps his cause. Matt Wilkinson's 80% mark over five starts is solid if thinner, while the Dodgers score in the first in just 27% of games against lefties. Even so, the model lands at only 53% scoreless, a notch below the market's 57%.
- NRFI lean — Blake Snell (88% NRFI) and Matt Wilkinson (80%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -150 (57% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
Walker Buehler's 81% NRFI rate over 31 starts anchors the case, and Petco Park's 94 run factor mutes an Arizona lineup that scores in the first 29% of the time. Corbin Burnes is a perfect 3-for-3, albeit a thin sample, facing a Padres offense that crosses the plate early in just 25% of games, 29th in MLB. The model's 57% sits five points above the market.
- NRFI lean — Corbin Burnes (100% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 57%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Ryan Johnson has kept the first inning clean in 82% of his 17 starts, including all of his last five, and T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor only helps that case. The worry sits on the other side: the Angels score in the opening frame 35% of the time against lefties, and Kade Anderson's 67% mark comes over six starts, which keeps the model's lean at a modest 54%.
- NRFI lean — Ryan Johnson (82% NRFI) and Kade Anderson (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
Connelly Early has kept the first inning clean in just half of his 16 starts, and only once in his last five, which drives the model's 47% NRFI read against the market's even 50%. Jonah Tong's 67% mark looks sturdier but rests on only three starts, and Nationals Park's 102 run factor gives offense a slight nudge.
- YRFI lean — the Washington Nationals push a first-inning run across in 30% of games (14th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -110.5 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
Minnesota's lineup is the reason to doubt a quiet first. The Twins score in the opening frame in 35% of games, most in MLB, and that climbs to 38% against right-handers like Nathan Eovaldi, whose 71% NRFI rate is solid but faces a real test. With Target Field playing slightly hitter-friendly at a 104 park factor, the model gives just a 47% chance of a scoreless first, below the market's 52%.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor tilts the first inning toward offense, and Houston arrives with one of baseball's most dangerous early lineups, scoring in the 1st 34% of the time (3rd-most) and 36% against righties. Jack Perkins has kept only 63% of his 16 starts scoreless in the opening frame, so even with Hayden Wesneski's sturdy 80% NRFI mark, the model gives a clean first just 44%.
- YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Houston Astros score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +103 (46% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
7
Justin Verlander's lone start featured a first-inning run, and Kirby Yates has yet to make one, so the mound offers little to go on. Detroit's lineup scores in the 1st in 34% of games, fourth-most in MLB, and Pittsburgh's rate climbs to 35% against righties. The model's 47% NRFI trails the book's 51%, but with samples this thin at neutral Comerica Park, it's close to a toss-up.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
Rhett Lowder and Trey Yesavage bring identical 63% NRFI rates and matching 3-for-5 recent runs, so neither mound at Rogers Centre offers an edge. The wrinkle is Cincinnati's 31% first-inning scoring rate against righties, which outpaces Toronto's 27%. With a neutral park factor of 100, the model lands at just 51% for a scoreless first, slightly below the book's 53%.
- Coin flip — Trey Yesavage's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 27% first-inning bats (25th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
Jack Ralston takes the ball for Miami without a single season start on record, and that blank slate leaves the model at a near-even 51% NRFI. Brent Suter's 67% scoreless rate comes from just three outings, though the Marlins help his case by scoring in the first only 24% of the time against lefties. Atlanta's 31% mark versus righties and a slightly hitter-friendly loanDepot park keep it level.
- Coin flip — Brent Suter's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 29% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -129 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 29% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
Tanner Bibee and Michael Wacha arrive with identical 77% NRFI marks, which would normally tilt things toward a quiet opening frame. The catch is Kansas City's offense, which scores in the first in 33% of games (5th-most in MLB) and 32% against righties, at a Kauffman Stadium playing slightly hitter-friendly at 102. The model's 51% scoreless projection sits nearly on top of the book's 50%.
- Coin flip — Tanner Bibee's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Davis Martin has kept 77% of his 26 starts scoreless in the first, but the other side is shakier: Jose Quintana sits at 67% NRFI and draws a White Sox lineup that scores in the opening frame 36% of the time against lefties. Rate Field's 98 park factor barely tilts things, so the model lands at 49% scoreless, well below the market's implied 96%.
- Coin flip — Davis Martin's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -124 (96% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
Quinn Mathews has kept 75% of his eight starts scoreless in the first, but Milwaukee scores in 38% of openers against lefties, a stiff test for a small sample. Dustin May (69% NRFI over 29 starts) faces a Cardinals lineup that manages just 25% versus righties, and American Family Field's 94 park factor helps pitchers. Still, the model sits at a near-even 52% NRFI.
- Coin flip — Quinn Mathews' 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 30% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -131 (53% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -144 (56% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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