NRFI Results

Clay Holmes has kept 81% of his 16 starts scoreless in the first, and he draws a Boston lineup that scores early in just 25% of games, 28th in MLB. Alec Gamboa's perfect NRFI mark comes from only two starts, though, and Fenway's 108 run factor favors hitters, so the model sees only a slight 53% NRFI tilt, well short of the market's 58%.

• NRFI lean — Clay Holmes has worked a scoreless first in 81% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -157.5 (58% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

• NRFI lean — Andrew Alvarez has worked a scoreless first in 100% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Jose Soriano has kept the first inning scoreless in 77% of his 30 starts, and Nick Lodolo gets a friendly draw of his own: Toronto's lineup scores in the opening frame just 19% of the time against lefties. The wrinkle is Cincinnati's 31% first-inning scoring rate versus right-handers, which keeps a neutral Rogers Centre from feeling comfortable. The model still lands at 55% NRFI, three points above the book's 52%.

• NRFI lean — Nick Lodolo (70% NRFI) and Jose Soriano (77%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 25% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Trevor Rogers has kept the first inning clean in 89% of his 28 starts, including all of his last five, which anchors the modest NRFI tilt at neutral Yankee Stadium. Brendan Beck allowed a first-inning run in his lone start, but Baltimore scores early just 26% of the time (26th in MLB). That one-start sample keeps confidence low, and the model's 55% sits just under the book's 57%.

• NRFI lean — Trevor Rogers has worked a scoreless first in 89% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -151.5 (57% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

• NRFI lean — Brandon Pfaadt (83% NRFI) and Casey Mize (92%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 60%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Reid Detmers has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 30 starts, including five straight, and T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor adds extra cover. The worry sits on the other side: Bryce Miller is a shakier 68% against an Angels lineup that scores in the 1st 34% of the time, fourth-most in MLB. That tension holds the model to a modest 55% NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Reid Detmers (80% NRFI) and Bryce Miller (68%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -152 (57% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

David Peterson has kept the first inning clean in just 48% of his 21 starts, and Brayan Bello sits at an even 50% across 10, so neither starter offers much early cover. Add Fenway's 108 run factor and the model lands at only 47% for a scoreless opening frame, well below the 61% the book implies, even though neither the Cubs nor the Red Sox score early often.

• YRFI lean — Fenway Park (run factor 108) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Chicago Cubs score early in 27% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -182 (61% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Jackson Jobe has kept the first inning clean in just 25% of his 8 starts, and only once in his last five, which is the main reason Comerica Park leans toward an early run. Bubba Chandler's 76% NRFI rate pulls the other way, but Detroit's lineup scores in the 1st 34% of the time, third-most in MLB. The model gives a scoreless first 46%.

• YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -130.5 (37% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Tomoyuki Sugano's 56% NRFI rate across 27 starts is the soft spot at Rate Field, especially against a White Sox lineup that scores in the first inning 32% of the time, sixth-most in MLB. Sean Burke's sturdier 76% mark should keep the Rockies' half quieter, but one leaky half-inning is all it takes. The model puts a scoreless first at 47%, below the book's implied 52%.

• YRFI lean — the Chicago White Sox push a first-inning run across in 32% of games (6th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Minnesota's lineup is the problem for Jacob deGrom: the Twins score in the first inning in 35% of games, most in MLB, and that climbs to 38% against right-handers. deGrom's 57% NRFI rate over 30 starts doesn't offer much resistance, and Target Field plays slightly hitter-friendly at a 104 park factor. The model sees only a 43% chance of a clean first, well below the market's 56%.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -149 (56% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.