NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 24, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
336-269
605 graded
56%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
5-1 on 6 leans
NRFI 3-0 · YRFI 2-1
NRFI Leans
3
Matthew Boyd has kept the first inning clean in 75% of his 20 starts, and he draws a Marlins lineup that scores early just 26% of the time, 26th in MLB. Tyler Phillips (68% NRFI) faces a similarly quiet Cubs top half, and Wrigley's 94 run factor adds a little more suppression. The model's 55% scoreless mark sits right alongside the market's 56%, so the lean is modest rather than strong.
- NRFI lean — Tyler Phillips (68% NRFI) and Matthew Boyd (75%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
Cam Schlittler has kept 87% of his 31 starts scoreless in the first, and he's a perfect 5-for-5 lately, which carries the NRFI lean at a neutral Yankee Stadium. The softer spot is Ian Seymour, whose 73% mark faces a Yankees lineup that scores in the first 34% of the time against lefties. The model's 53% sits well below the book's 60%, so the lean is modest.
- NRFI lean — Ian Seymour (73% NRFI) and Cam Schlittler (87%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -177 (60% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Nick Pivetta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his six starts, which is why the model tilts toward a quiet opening frame. Tyler Glasnow (82% NRFI) gets the friendlier assignment, facing a Padres lineup that scores first-inning runs just 22% of the time against righties. Still, the Dodgers score in 32% of first innings against right-handers, so the edge stays modest at 53%.
- NRFI lean — Nick Pivetta (100% NRFI) and Tyler Glasnow (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
Coors Field's 128 run factor does a lot of the lifting, and Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't been sturdy enough to push back: he's at a 53% NRFI rate across 30 starts and has kept the first clean just once in his last five. Tanner Gordon's 82% mark over 11 starts is the counterweight, but the model still lands at only 40% scoreless, below the market's 47%.
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 32% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 40%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Brady Singer has kept the first inning clean in just 54% of his 28 starts, and only twice in his last five, which is why the model puts a scoreless opening frame at 47% at Truist Park. Tyler Mahle's 60% NRFI rate offers some balance, though Cincinnati's lineup scores early 31% of the time against righties.
- YRFI lean — the market is pricing in an early run here.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
Mason Barnett has kept the first inning clean in just 40% of his five starts, and now he draws a Houston lineup that scores in the opening frame 34% of the time, second-most in MLB, and 36% against righties. Peter Lambert's 74% NRFI rate steadies the other half, but Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor keeps the model at only a 43% chance of a scoreless first.
- YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Houston Astros score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +120.5 (43% implied); the model has it 43%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
6
Kyle Leahy's 79% NRFI rate over 28 starts looks sturdy until you notice he's kept the first inning clean in just 2 of his last 5, and Pittsburgh scores early 34% of the time against righties. Paul Skenes draws a softer Cardinals lineup that manages only 23% versus right-handers, while PNC Park's 98 factor barely moves the needle. The model lands at 53%, below the market's 58%.
- Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 30% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -156.5 (58% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Randy Dobnak has been untouchable early, posting a 92% NRFI rate across 12 starts and blanking the first inning in each of his last five. The trouble is the other half: David Sandlin sits at just 40% over five starts and draws a Royals lineup that scores in the opening frame 33% of the time, fifth-most in MLB. With Kauffman playing slightly hitter-friendly (102), the model lands near even at 48%.
- Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 92% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -5 (8% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Kumar Rocker and Zac Thornton have each kept exactly half their starts scoreless in the first (Rocker over 26, Thornton over 14), so neither mound offers much separation. The Mets and Rangers lineups mirror each other too, both scoring early in 29% of games, while Globe Life Field's 94 park factor only slightly favors pitching. The model's 47% NRFI sits right beside the market's 49%.
- Coin flip — Zac Thornton's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 29% first-inning bats (20th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Shane Drohan's 83% NRFI rate over 18 starts runs into a Phillies lineup that scores in the first 40% of the time against lefties, and that collision drives everything at Citizens Bank Park. Andrew Painter is the shakier arm at 64%, but Milwaukee has managed just 27% versus righties. Add a slightly hitter-friendly 102 park factor, and the model lands at 49%, right alongside the market.
- Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 40% against left-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Ranger Suarez has kept the first inning clean in 77% of his 26 starts, and a Cleveland lineup that scores early just 28% of the time shouldn't trouble him much. The real unknown is Daniel Espino, with only two starts on record, pitching in a hitter-friendly Fenway (108 park factor). Boston's own sluggish 25% first-inning rate offsets that, leaving the model at a near-even 52%.
- Coin flip — Ranger Suarez's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cleveland Guardians' 28% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -156 (57% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor and Bryan Woo's 75% NRFI rate over 28 starts both point toward a quiet opening frame, but the Angels push back as the third-most frequent first-inning scorers at 34%. Grayson Rodriguez is the shakier arm at 63%, and Woo has kept the first clean in just two of his last five. The model's 53% sits right beside the market's 54%, a genuine toss-up.
- Coin flip — Bryan Woo's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -134 (54% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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