NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 18, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
309-255
564 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
167-15053%
YRFI
142-10557%
0-0 on 7 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
3
Great American Ball Park · park run factor 106
- NRFI lean — Clay Holmes (87% NRFI) and Chase Burns (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Tropicana Field · park run factor 95
- NRFI lean — Ranger Suarez (80% NRFI) and Ian Seymour (79%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
Petco Park · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Tyler Phillips (67% NRFI) and Nick Pivetta (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
4
Zac ThorntonLHP
46% NRFI · 13 GS · 2/5 L5
NYM 1st: 29% (#18) · 28% vs hand
Citi Field · park run factor 96
- YRFI lean — the Philadelphia Phillies push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 41% against left-handers.
Daikin Park · park run factor 100
- YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -107 (48% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Starter TBD
Awaiting probable starter
Coors Field · park run factor 128
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 32% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +108 (45% implied).
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB.
Angel Stadium · park run factor 102
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -127.5 (100% implied); the model has it 43%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
8
PNC Park · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 91% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Starter TBD
Awaiting probable starter
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Dustin May's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 30% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118.5 (51% implied).
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 26% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB.
Daniel EspinoRHP
100% NRFI · 1 GS · 1/1 L5
CLE 1st: 28% (#22) · 28% vs hand
Progressive Field · park run factor 94
- Coin flip — Mason Barnett's 25% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Andrew SearsLHP
100% NRFI · 2 GS · 2/2 L5
DET 1st: 34% (#4) · 35% vs hand
Rate Field · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — David Sandlin's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
Globe Life Field · park run factor 94
- Coin flip — Dylan Cease's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 29% first-inning bats (20th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -135 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
Busch Stadium · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Chase Field · park run factor 106
- Coin flip — Gerrit Cole's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
Cesar PerdomoLHP
100% NRFI · 2 GS · 2/2 L5
SF 1st: 29% (#19) · 25% vs hand
Dodger Stadium · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Tyler Glasnow's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
Want full matchup analysis & AI picks? →
Pitcher arsenals, bullpen context, lineup splits, and AI-powered MLB prop analysis — free to start.
Get Started FreeOr browse today’s MLB games or MLB player props.