NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 17, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
305-254
559 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 5 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
1
Tyler Alexander hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his four starts, and the Red Sox give him a friendly matchup — Boston plates a run in the opening frame just 26% of the time, 28th in MLB. Sonny Gray's 69% NRFI rate over 26 starts pairs with a Texas lineup scoring first-inning runs in 28% of games, and Globe Life Field's 94 run factor trims the margins further.
- NRFI lean — Sonny Gray (69% NRFI) and Tyler Alexander (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -127.5 (100% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
YRFI Leans
4
Brady Singer has kept the first inning clean in just 56% of his 27 starts, and only twice in his last five — not ideal against a Dodgers lineup that plates a run in the opening frame 30% of the time, including 31% against righties. Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor nudges things further toward YRFI, though Justin Wrobleski's 67% NRFI rate and Cincinnati's 16% first-inning mark versus lefties keep this close to a 50/50 proposition.
- YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Los Angeles Dodgers score early in 30% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +105.5 (46% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at 0 (0% implied).
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB.
Erick Fedde has kept the first inning clean in just 43% of his 14 starts, and he draws a Detroit lineup that puts up a run in the opening frame 34% of the time — second-most in MLB and 35% against right-handers. Framber Valdez pushes back the other way at 68% NRFI, but that Fedde-Tigers half is enough to tilt the model to 45% scoreless, under the book's 51%. Rate Field's 98 run factor is close to neutral.
- YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
Walbert Urena has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 25 starts, which is why the book sits at 54% NRFI — but he's staring at the most dangerous opening-frame offense in baseball. Minnesota plates a run in the first 36% of the time, 39% against righties, and Taj Bradley's 57% NRFI mark gives the Angels' own top-three first-inning bats room to answer in a park playing slightly above average.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
4
Kyle Harrison has kept the first inning clean in 77% of his 22 starts, and the Pirates have dented lefties in just 20% of their first innings — the strongest scoreless signal on the board here. The problem is the other side: Wilber Dotel's spotless 100% NRFI mark comes from a single start, which tells us almost nothing. With PNC Park playing slightly under average at a 98 run factor, the model lands at 51% scoreless, essentially matching the book's 52%.
- Coin flip — Kyle Harrison's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Drew Rasmussen has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 27 starts and all five of his last five — normally the backbone of an NRFI case. The problem is the other half: Jeffrey Springs sits at just 46% and has been scored on in three of his last five, and Tampa Bay puts up first-inning runs in 32% of games (36% against lefties). Tropicana's 95 run factor helps, but the model's 49% scoreless read lands just under the book's 52%.
- Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Michael King has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 27 starts, and Tanner Gordon has matched that form lately with five straight scoreless openers. The catch is Coors Field, where a 128 run factor magnifies everything, and Colorado's bats put up a first-inning run in 32% of games — eighth-most in MLB. The model's 47% scoreless number sits barely above the market's 44%, so it's close to a true toss-up.
- Coin flip — Michael King's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +114 (44% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Aaron Nola and Nolan McLean arrive with nearly identical first-inning résumés — 72% and 71% NRFI across 29 and 28 starts — which is exactly why this one refuses to tip. The counterweight is Philadelphia's offense, which puts a run up in the opening frame 33% of the time, fifth-most in MLB, though that dips to 28% against right-handers. Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things quiet, and the model's 51% matches the market exactly.
- Coin flip — Aaron Nola's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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