NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 16, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
302-249
551 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 8 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
6
Parker Messick has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 29 starts, and that number anchors this lean toward NRFI. Anthony Kay is no slouch either at 70%, and Cleveland's offense only plates a run in the opening frame 28% of the time (26% against lefties) inside a Progressive Field that suppresses scoring at a 94 park factor. The model's 55% matches the book exactly, so there's no real gap to speak of.
- NRFI lean — Anthony Kay (70% NRFI) and Parker Messick (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -138.5 (55% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
Nick Martinez has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 27 starts, which is the single sturdiest number on the board and the main reason this leans NRFI. The counterweight is Brady Basso, at 60% through just five starts, facing a Rays lineup that plates a first-inning run 32% of the time — seventh-most in MLB. Tropicana Field's 95 run factor trims the edges, but at 53% the model barely separates from the market's 52%.
- NRFI lean — Brady Basso (60% NRFI) and Nick Martinez (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Logan Henderson has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 16 starts, and Jared Jones has been nearly as stingy at 83% with a scoreless first in each of his last five. That's the case for the under, though it's a soft one: both Pittsburgh and Milwaukee put up a first-inning run in 31% of their games, top-10 marks in MLB. The model's 53% actually sits below the book's 56%.
- NRFI lean — Logan Henderson (88% NRFI) and Jared Jones (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -147.5 (56% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Robert Stock has kept the first inning clean in six of his seven starts, including all five of his most recent, and he's facing a Baltimore lineup that puts up a first-inning run just 25% of the time — 29th in MLB. Chris Bassitt's 67% NRFI mark holds up his end against a Mets offense that scores early in 29% of games, and Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things down further. Model sits at 54% scoreless versus 49% implied.
- NRFI lean — Chris Bassitt (67% NRFI) and Robert Stock (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
JR Ritchie has kept the first inning clean in 75% of his eight starts, and Shota Imanaga isn't far behind at 71% across 28 outings — a rare case where both starters bring strong opening-frame résumés. The Cubs plate a first-inning run just 27% of the time, 26% against righties, while Atlanta drops to 24% versus lefties. Wrigley's 94 run factor nudges things further toward a quiet start.
- NRFI lean — JR Ritchie (75% NRFI) and Shota Imanaga (71%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -124 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
Jake Bennett has kept the first inning clean in 89% of his 18 starts, and MacKenzie Gore counters with a perfect 5-for-5 scoreless run over his last five. Neither offense has been quick out of the gate either — Texas scores in the first just 28% of the time, Boston 25%, both bottom-third in MLB and each at 26% against left-handed starters. Globe Life Field's 94 run factor nudges things further toward zeros, with the model at 58% against a 53% market read.
- NRFI lean — Jake Bennett (89% NRFI) and MacKenzie Gore (73%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -129 (53% implied); the model has it 58%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
YRFI Leans
2
Zebby Matthews has kept the first inning clean in just 48% of his 21 starts, and that's the crack in this game — a Yankees offense that plates a run in the opening frame 29% of the time gets a pitcher who hasn't reliably avoided it. Carlos Rodon's 71% NRFI rate pushes back, but Minnesota leads MLB by scoring first-inning runs in 35% of games. The model sits at 44% scoreless, under the book's 54%.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -136.5 (54% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
Andrew Abbott has been a near coin flip at keeping the first inning clean — 52% NRFI across 29 starts, and just 2 of his last 5 — which is the crack in this game, especially with Great American Ball Park playing 6% above average for runs. Blake Snell pushes back hard at 86% NRFI over seven starts, so the model's 47% scoreless sits well above the book's implied 36%.
- YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Los Angeles Dodgers score early in 30% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at -128.5 (36% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
7
Matthew Liberatore has kept the first inning clean in 61% of his 28 starts, including four of his last five, and Anthony Molina sits at 67% across a much smaller three-start sample. Neither offense does much early — St. Louis scores in the first 30% of the time, San Francisco 29% — yet the Giants bump up to 34% against lefties. At a neutral Busch Stadium, the model reads this as a near 50/50 first frame, well shy of the market's lopsided NRFI price.
- Coin flip — Anthony Molina's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (97% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
Keider Montero has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 24 starts, and he's drawing a Toronto lineup that scores in the opening frame just 24% of the time — 30th in MLB. The other half flips it: Max Scherzer has posted a first-inning zero in only 40% of his 15 outings, and Detroit's bats rank third in MLB at 34%. The model's 49% scoreless read sits essentially on top of the book's 50%.
- Coin flip — Keider Montero's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
Zack Wheeler has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 25 starts, and Washington's bats have only struck in the opening frame 30% of the time — 29% against righties. The unknown is Jared Simpson, who has no starts on the season, and he's facing a Phillies group that scores first-inning runs 33% of the time overall and 40% against lefties. At a slightly hitter-friendly Nationals Park, 50/50 is fair.
- Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 40% against left-handers.
Cristian Javier has kept the first inning clean in eight of nine starts, including his last five straight — that's the anchor here. The problem is everything around him: Daniel Lynch IV sits at 57% NRFI and has managed a scoreless first just twice in his last five, while Houston (34% of games) and Kansas City (32%) both rank among the game's most active first-inning offenses. The model's 48% scoreless figure sits well under the book's implied 64%.
- Coin flip — Cristian Javier's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +1.5 (64% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Robbie Ray has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 27 starts, and Mason Adams has yet to allow a first-inning run across his four, so the arms argue for zeros. Coors Field and its 128 run factor argue right back, as does a Colorado lineup that plates a run in the first 31% of the time — eighth-most in MLB. The model's 47% scoreless read sits just above the book's 43%, which is about as close to even as it gets.
- Coin flip — Mason Adams' 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 31% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +118 (43% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Yusei Kikuchi has kept the first inning clean in 90% of his 10 starts, including all five of his last five — but that's a small sample to hang a night on. George Kirby is the softer side at 63% NRFI and just 2-of-5 recently, and the Angels put up a first-inning run in 34% of their games, fourth-most in MLB. At 48% scoreless in a slightly run-friendly Angel Stadium, it grades as close to even.
- Coin flip — Yusei Kikuchi's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
Ryan Gusto has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 16 starts, including each of his last five, and Merrill Kelly isn't far behind at 70% across 27 outings. Neither offense pushes back much early either — Arizona scores in the first 28% of the time, Miami 27%. Chase Field's 106 run factor is the counterweight, which is why the model sits at a near-even 52% scoreless.
- Coin flip — Ryan Gusto's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 28% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -103.5 (48% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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