NRFI Results

Fourth-most first-inning scoring in the majors belongs to the Angels, who put a run up in 34% of their games and 33% against righties — exactly the kind of bat that tests Jake Irvin, whose 61% NRFI rate over 18 starts is solid but not airtight. Grayson Rodriguez has been the steadier of the two at 65%, though Nationals Park's 102 run factor nudges things toward the YRFI side at a 46% scoreless projection.

• Coin flip — Grayson Rodriguez's 65% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104.5 (48% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Grant Holmes has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 25 starts, including each of his last five — that's the anchor here. The problem is the other side: Andrew Painter sits at 65% and has been shaky lately at 3-of-5, and the Phillies rank sixth in MLB at scoring in the opening frame. With Truist Park playing a tick above average at 102, the model's 51% scoreless read is genuinely a toss-up, modestly above the 45% the book implies.

• Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +111 (45% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Hayden Wesneski has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his eight starts, including each of his last five — that's the strongest single number on the board. The problem is what's on the other side: Freddy Peralta has surrendered a first-inning run in three of his last five, and Houston's bats rank third in MLB at scoring in the opening frame (35% against righties). Tropicana Field's 95 run factor helps, but the model's 49% scoreless sits essentially even with the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — Hayden Wesneski's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Eury Perez has kept the first inning clean in 68% of his 25 starts, and that's the sturdiest number on the board here. The problem is the other side: Emmet Sheehan sits at 55% for the season and just 2-of-5 lately, and he's facing a Dodgers-caliber opponent in a Marlins lineup that plates a first-inning run 29% of the time against righties. Model says 47% scoreless, book implies 36% — genuine disagreement on a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Eury Perez's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -128.5 (36% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Tanner Bibee has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 29 starts, including all five of his last five — that's the strongest thing going for NRFI here. The problem is who he's facing: Minnesota plates a first-inning run in 36% of games, tops in MLB and 38% against righties, and Joe Ryan has slipped to 2-of-5 lately at a park playing 4% above average for runs. Genuine coin flip at 48%.

• Coin flip — Tanner Bibee's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 36% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -131.5 (37% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

• Coin flip — Michael McGreevy's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Noah Cameron's 81% first-inning shutout rate across 27 starts is the sturdiest number on the board, and he draws a Boston offense that plates a run in the opening frame just 25% of the time — 28th in MLB. The pushback comes from the other side: Fenway plays 8% above average for runs, and Kansas City's bats rank fifth in first-inning scoring at 32% against a 67% NRFI arm in Payton Tolle. The model sits at a true 50/50, a touch under the 56% implied.

• Coin flip — Noah Cameron's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Jacob Lopez has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 20 starts, and Bryce Miller isn't far behind at 71% — normally that combination screams zeros. The complication is Sutter Health Park, where the 117 run factor inflates everything, and Seattle's bats have touched the scoreboard in the opening frame 31% of the time. The model lands at 48% scoreless, essentially even with the book's 49%.

• Coin flip — Jacob Lopez's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

Cal Quantrill has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 12 starts, which is the strongest number on the board — but Eduardo Rodriguez sits at just 57% across 28 outings and has allowed a first-inning run in three of his last five. Both offenses rank bottom-third at scoring early (Arizona 27%, Texas 28%), though Chase Field's 106 run factor nudges back. Model lands at 49%, the book at 51%.

• Coin flip — Cal Quantrill's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 28% first-inning bats (24th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.