NRFI Results

Tanner Gordon has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his nine starts, including each of his last five, but Detroit's offense is the tension here — the Tigers put a run on the board in the opening frame 34% of the time, second-most in MLB. Andrew Sears counters with a spotless first-inning record that spans exactly one start, so there's little to lean on. Model and book agree at 49%.

• Coin flip — Tanner Gordon's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

Gerrit Cole has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 19 starts, including four of his last five — that's the reason this doesn't tilt further toward YRFI. The counterweight is Zac Thornton, who has posted a first-inning zero just 42% of the time across 12 outings, and the Yankees push a run across in 34% of games against lefties. With both lineups middling in first-inning scoring, 50/50 is fair.

• Coin flip — Gerrit Cole's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Randy Dobnak has posted a scoreless first in nine of his 10 starts, and Ranger Suarez is close behind at 79% across 24 — both riding 5-for-5 streaks over their last five. The pushback comes from Fenway's 108 run factor and a Kansas City lineup that puts up first-inning runs 33% of the time, fifth-most in MLB. At 51% scoreless, the model reads this as a genuine toss-up, far off the market's 96%.

• Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 90% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -124 (96% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Tyler Glasnow has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his nine starts, and Tyler Phillips isn't far behind at 71% across 17 — yet the model still splits this one down the middle at 51% scoreless. Part of that is loanDepot park playing a tick above average at 102, and part is the Dodgers plating a first-inning run in 31% of games. Miami's 28% clip keeps it genuinely even.

• Coin flip — Tyler Glasnow's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -138 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Ian Seymour has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 13 starts, and the Trop's 95 run factor tilts the same direction — but Peter Lambert has muddied things lately, posting scoreless firsts in just 2 of his last 5. With Houston's bats ranking 4th in MLB at scoring in the opening frame and Tampa Bay 8th, the model lands at 51% scoreless, a hair under the book's 53%.

• Coin flip — Ian Seymour's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 33% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -129 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Brady Singer's 58% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (51% implied).
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB.

Jesus Luzardo has kept the first inning clean in 93% of his 28 starts, which is about as strong a top-half signal as you'll find — and Atlanta only plates a first-inning run 25% of the time against lefties. The other half is the problem: Tyler Mahle sits at 61% NRFI, and Philadelphia's bats rank sixth in MLB for first-inning scoring. Truist Park's 102 run factor nudges it toward a true 51% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 93% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Sean Newcomb hasn't surrendered a first-inning run in any of his four starts, and Kyle Leahy has kept the opening frame clean in 81% of his 26 — strong marks on both sides, but Newcomb's sample is thin. The Cardinals also put a run on the board in the first 37% of the time against left-handers, a notch above their 30% overall rate. Neutral Busch Stadium leaves this near a true 52/48 split.

• Coin flip — Sean Newcomb's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Brandon Pfaadt has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 16 starts, including four of his last five — that's the anchor here. The problem is the other half: Kumar Rocker sits at 46% NRFI across 24 starts and has managed a scoreless first just twice in five, and Chase Field's 106 run factor doesn't help him. Two quiet first-inning offenses at 28% keep this near a coin flip at 47%.

• Coin flip — Brandon Pfaadt's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 28% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -112 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Bryan Woo has kept the first inning clean in 77% of his 26 starts, and Gage Jump isn't far behind at 74% over 19 — yet the model still sits under a coin flip at 47% scoreless. Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor is doing the heavy lifting there, offsetting two arms who normally settle in early. With Seattle scoring first-inning runs in 31% of games and Oakland at 28%, neither side leans hard.

• Coin flip — Bryan Woo's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.