NRFI Results

Mason Adams has kept the first inning clean in all three of his starts, but three starts is thin evidence against a Detroit lineup that puts up a first-inning run in 34% of its games — second-most in MLB, and 36% against right-handers. Framber Valdez is the steadier side of the equation at 67% NRFI across 27 starts, with the Rockies scoring early 31% of the time. The model's 48% scoreless read sits just under the book's 52%, which is close to a wash at Comerica.

• Coin flip — Mason Adams' 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Yusei Kikuchi has kept the first inning clean in 89% of his nine starts, including each of his last five, and that's the sturdiest number on the board here. The counterweight is the Angels lineup, which scores in the opening frame 33% of the time — fourth-most in MLB — against a Cade Cavalli who sits at 76% NRFI in a slightly run-friendly Nationals Park. Model lands at 51%, basically a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Yusei Kikuchi's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 33% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Nolan McLean has kept the first inning clean in 74% of his 27 starts, and Carlos Rodon isn't far behind at 69% over 13 — both have gone 4-for-5 in that department lately. Yet the model still sits at 52% scoreless, because neither offense is easy to shut down: the Yankees plate a first-inning run in 28% of games, the Mets 29%, and Yankee Stadium plays dead average at a 100 run factor. Genuinely close to a 50/50 read.

• Coin flip — Nolan McLean's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

Chris Bassitt has kept the first inning clean in 64% of his 14 starts, including four of his last five, and neither offense here does much early — Toronto scores in the opening frame just 24% of the time, Baltimore 25%. The drag is Max Scherzer at 43% NRFI with only one clean first in his last five, which pulls a neutral Rogers Centre back to a true 52% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Chris Bassitt's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Baltimore Orioles' 25% first-inning bats (28th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Drew Rasmussen has kept the first frame clean in 85% of his 26 starts, five straight included, and Tropicana Field's 95 run factor helps him. The catch is the other half: Miguel Ullola has no season starts to grade, and Houston plates a first-inning run 34% of the time — third-most in MLB. With the book implying 90% NRFI against a model near 52%, that unknown looms large.

• Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -121.5 (90% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Chris Sale has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 24 starts, the best number on the board here — but the Phillies plate a first-inning run 39% of the time against left-handers, 6th-most in MLB overall. Aaron Nola counters with a 75% NRFI mark and five straight scoreless openers, though Truist Park's 102 run factor nudges things the other way. The model's 52% scoreless sits just under the book's implied 55%.

• Coin flip — Chris Sale's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.

Dustin May has kept the first inning clean in 65% of his 26 starts, but Andrew Abbott sits at just 54% and has been scratched up lately, with runs allowed in three of his last five openers. Milwaukee's bats score in the first 30% of the time overall and 38% against lefties, which is enough to offset May's edge — the model lands at 49% scoreless, a hair under the book's 53%.

• Coin flip — Dustin May's 65% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 30% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -129 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Parker Messick has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 28 starts, which is exactly the kind of number that should anchor an NRFI — except the Twins put runs on the board in the opening frame 37% of the time, the highest rate in MLB. Taj Bradley's 56% clean-first mark and Target Field's 104 run factor tilt the other half, leaving the model at 47% scoreless, a touch under the book's 55%.

• Coin flip — Parker Messick's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 37% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -141 (55% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Matthew Liberatore has kept the first inning clean in all five of his last five starts, and Anthony Kay has done it in four of his last five — yet the model still can't separate this one, landing at 49% scoreless against a book number of 50%. The reason is the bats: St. Louis plates a first-inning run in 35% of games against lefties, and the White Sox sit at 32% versus the same hand. Busch Stadium's neutral 100 run factor tips nothing either way.

• Coin flip — Anthony Kay's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — MacKenzie Gore's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 28% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB.