NRFI Results

Jesus Luzardo has kept the first inning clean in 93% of his 27 starts, and Grant Holmes isn't far behind at 88% with five straight scoreless openers. That matters because Philadelphia's bats, despite ranking fifth in MLB for first-inning scoring at 33%, dip to 28% against left-handers — er, against Holmes' right-handed look they've been solid, but Atlanta's offense scores early just 24% of the time versus southpaws. Citizens Bank Park's 102 run factor is the main counterweight.

• NRFI lean — Grant Holmes (88% NRFI) and Jesus Luzardo (93%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -117 (51% implied); the model has it 55%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Trevor Rogers has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 25 starts, including all five of his last five, and he's facing a Cleveland offense that plates a first-inning run just 27% of the time (24% against lefties). Baltimore's bats have been even quieter early — 26% overall, 16% versus left-handers, which is where Joey Cantillo comes in despite an 0-for-5 stretch. Camden Yards plays neutral, and the model's 56% sits just past the book's 54%.

• NRFI lean — Joey Cantillo (68% NRFI) and Trevor Rogers (88%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 26% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Matthew Boyd has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 17 starts, and four of his last five, which anchors the modest NRFI lean at American Family Field's run-suppressing 94 park factor. Robert Gasser's 63% clip is solid but shakier, and Milwaukee's lineup jumps to 37% first-inning scoring against lefties. The model's 53% barely separates from the book's 52% — a thin edge either way.

• NRFI lean — Matthew Boyd (76% NRFI) and Robert Gasser (63%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.

Nick Pivetta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his three starts, and Petco Park's 94 run factor gives him a friendly backdrop against a Washington lineup that scores in the opening frame just 30% of the time. Jake Irvin brings a 65% NRFI mark of his own, facing a Padres offense that ranks 30th in first-inning scoring at 24%. The model's 54% edges the market's 51%.

• NRFI lean — Jake Irvin (65% NRFI) and Nick Pivetta (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -121 (51% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Logan Webb has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 24 starts, and Michael McGreevy isn't far behind at 76% across 25 — two righties who tend to settle in early at a pitcher-friendly Oracle Park (94 run factor). San Francisco's bats have only dented the first frame in 26% of games, 21% against righties. The model sits at 56% scoreless, well shy of the book's 98% implied number.

• NRFI lean — Michael McGreevy (76% NRFI) and Logan Webb (79%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -129.5 (98% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

• NRFI lean — Chase Burns has worked a scoreless first in 84% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied).
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB.

Brayan Bello has kept the first inning clean in just 38% of his eight starts, and only one of his last five — a rough draw against an Angels lineup that plates a run in the opening frame 34% of the time, third-most in MLB. Grayson Rodriguez's 63% NRFI rate offers some balance, but with Fenway's 108 park factor, the model's 44% scoreless sits under the book's implied 51%.

• YRFI lean — Fenway Park (run factor 108) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Los Angeles Angels score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Minnesota's bats put up first-inning runs in 36% of games — the highest rate in MLB — and 38% against right-handers like Troy Melton, whose 65% NRFI mark across 17 starts leaves room for trouble. Detroit isn't far behind at 34%, fourth-most in the league, and Joe Ryan's 68% clip has slipped to 3-of-5 recently. Two aggressive early-inning offenses at a neutral Comerica Park tilts this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -129.5 (97% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.