NRFI Results
First-inning leans for September 6, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
279-222
501 graded
56%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
5-2 on 8 leans
NRFI 3-2 · YRFI 2-0
NRFI Leans
5
Kyle Bradish has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his 26 starts, including all five of his last five — that's the anchor here. Payton Tolle isn't far behind at 70%, and neither offense does much early: Baltimore has scored in the first just 25% of the time (14% against lefties), Boston 26%. The model's 57% NRFI barely nudges past the book's 55%, so the edge is thin at Camden Yards.
- NRFI lean — Payton Tolle (70% NRFI) and Kyle Bradish (92%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 57%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 14% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
Christian Scott has kept the first inning clean in 75% of his 20 starts, including four of his last five, and the Giants are among the league's quieter early offenses — scoring in the opening frame just 27% of the time, and only 22% against righties. The wrinkle is Cesar Perdomo, who has no season starts to lean on, so the 54% scoreless estimate comes with thin footing at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
- NRFI lean — Christian Scott has worked a scoreless first in 75% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 27% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Ian Seymour has kept the first inning clean in 83% of his 12 starts, and he draws a Texas lineup that scores in the opening frame just 28% of the time — 24% against lefties. MacKenzie Gore's 71% first-inning shutout rate adds to it, though Tampa Bay's bats rank eighth in MLB at 32%. The model and the book agree at 53% NRFI, a modest lean in a park playing below average for runs.
- NRFI lean — Ian Seymour (83% NRFI) and MacKenzie Gore (71%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
Bryan Woo has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 25 starts, and Gage Jump isn't far behind at 72% over 18 — two starters who tend to settle in quickly. T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor only reinforces that, and Oakland's bats have opened the scoring just 28% of the time. The model's 57% sits essentially on top of the book's 56%, so the edge is thin.
- NRFI lean — Gage Jump (72% NRFI) and Bryan Woo (76%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -145 (56% implied); the model has it 57%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Michael King has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 25 starts, and Gerrit Cole isn't far behind at 83% — both have run off five straight scoreless openers. Neither offense pushes back much either: San Diego scores in the first just 24% of the time (19% against righties), the Yankees 27%. Add Petco's 94 run factor and the NRFI lean is easy to see.
- NRFI lean — Gerrit Cole (83% NRFI) and Michael King (88%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -143 (56% implied); the model has it 60%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
3
Houston's bats have plated a first-inning run in 34% of their games, third-most in the majors, and Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't been especially good at slamming the door — a 59% NRFI mark across 27 starts. Peter Lambert's 71% season rate looks steadier, though he's kept the first clean in just one of his last five. The model puts a scoreless frame at 47%, well under the 94% the book implies.
- YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 34% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (94% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Coors Field's 128 run factor is doing the heavy lifting here, because the arms actually look sharp: Kyle Leahy has kept the first inning clean in 84% of his 25 starts, and Tanner Gordon is 5-for-5 in his last five. But Colorado plates a first-inning run in 31% of games, ninth-most in MLB, and the model's 45% scoreless mark sits just under the book's 43% NRFI read.
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 31% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +120 (43% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
Minnesota's offense puts up a first-inning run in 36% of games — the highest rate in the majors — and Chicago isn't far behind at 32%, seventh-best. That's enough to nudge this one toward YRFI despite Bailey Ober (70% NRFI in 20 starts) and Bryan Hudson (71% in seven) both keeping the opening frame clean at similar clips. The model's 47% scoreless sits just under the book's implied 50% at Rate Field.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
7
Kyle Harrison has kept the first inning clean in 81% of his 21 starts, and the Reds have been especially quiet early against lefties — just 16% of the time. The problem is the other half: Brady Singer sits at a middling 56% NRFI, Milwaukee plates a first-inning run in 27% of its games versus righties, and Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor doesn't help him. Model lands at 49% scoreless, right on top of the book's 52%.
- Coin flip — Kyle Harrison's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 30% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Aaron Nola has kept the first inning clean in 74% of his 27 starts, and Tyler Mahle isn't far behind at 64% — both with four scoreless openers in their last five. The counterweight is Philadelphia's lineup, which plates a run in the first 33% of the time, fifth-most in MLB, though that dips to 28% against righties. Citizens Bank Park's 102 run factor keeps it near a true coin flip at 48%.
- Coin flip — Aaron Nola's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -10 (14% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Walbert Urena has kept the first inning clean in 91% of his 23 starts, and Paul Skenes isn't far off at 78% — both riding 5-for-5 streaks over their last five. The catch is the offenses across from them: the Angels put up a first-inning run in 34% of their games, second-most in MLB, and Pittsburgh's 31% clip climbs to 36% against righties. Elite arms, aggressive early bats, and a slightly pitcher-friendly PNC Park land this at 53% scoreless — a genuine coin flip, just under the book's 56%.
- Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 91% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -150 (56% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
Clay Holmes has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 13 starts, which is the strongest single number on the board here — yet the model still lands at 52% scoreless. Part of that is loanDepot park playing slightly hitter-friendly at a 102 run factor, and Tyler Phillips sitting at a more ordinary 69% NRFI clip across 16 outings. With Miami scoring first-inning runs in 29% of games and the Cubs at 27%, the market's matching 52% read looks fair.
- Coin flip — Clay Holmes' 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Gavin Williams has kept the first inning clean in 74% of his 27 starts, and Progressive Field's 94 run factor only helps that side of the ledger. The problem is the other half: Jackson Jobe has managed a scoreless opening frame in just 40% of his five starts, and Detroit's bats rank fourth in MLB at scoring in the first (33%). That split lands the model at 51% NRFI, well under the book's implied 58%.
- Coin flip — Gavin Williams' 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -162 (58% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
Randy Dobnak has kept the first inning clean in 89% of his nine starts, and Toronto's offense isn't built to change that — the Blue Jays put up a first-inning run in just 24% of games, 29th in MLB. The counterweight is Kansas City's bats, who strike early 32% of the time against Spencer Arrighetti's 72% NRFI mark, in a Kauffman park that plays slightly above average. Model sits at 52% scoreless versus 47% implied.
- Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Andrew Alvarez has not allowed a first-inning run in 13 starts this season, and he's 5-for-5 over his last five — but the Dodgers still push a run across in the opening frame 31% of the time, 10th-most in MLB. On the other side, Justin Wrobleski's 65% NRFI rate has slipped to 2-of-5 lately against a Nationals lineup that scores first-inning runs 31% of the time versus lefties. The model's 51% scoreless read essentially matches the market's 50%.
- Coin flip — Andrew Alvarez's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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