NRFI Results

Zac Thornton's 45% first-inning shutout rate across 11 starts is the only meaningful track record on the mound here — Anthony Molina has exactly one big-league start, and a first-inning run scored in it, which tells us almost nothing. Both offenses are quiet early, with the Mets plating a run in the first 28% of the time and the Giants 26%, and Citi Field's 96 run factor trims the margins further. The model's 51% NRFI sits right on top of the book's 52%.

• Coin flip — Zac Thornton's 45% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 28% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Zack Wheeler has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his 23 starts, and Martin Perez isn't far behind at 73% over 22 — on paper, that's a quiet opening frame. The complication is Philadelphia's offense, which plates a run in the first in 32% of games (fifth-most in MLB) and jumps to 39% against lefties like Perez. With Citizens Bank Park playing slightly hot, the model sits right at 50%.

• Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -119 (51% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Yusei Kikuchi has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his eight starts, including each of his last five, and the Pirates have only put up a first-inning run 17% of the time against lefties. The pushback comes from the other side: the Angels rank second in MLB at scoring in the first (35%) and hold that rate at 34% versus righties like Braxton Ashcraft, whose own 77% NRFI mark is solid but not airtight. PNC Park's 98 run factor barely nudges it either way, leaving this a true 50/50.

• Coin flip — Yusei Kikuchi's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -139 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Dustin May has kept the first inning clean in 68% of his 25 starts, and Cincinnati's offense ranks 26th in MLB at scoring in the opening frame (26%), so one half of this is tilted firmly toward zeros. The other half isn't: Andrew Abbott sits at 56% NRFI, Milwaukee plates a run in the first 36% of the time against lefties, and Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor doesn't help. Model says 47%, book 49% — essentially a toss-up.

• Coin flip — Dustin May's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 29% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

Drew Rasmussen has kept the first inning clean in 84% of his 25 starts, including each of his last five — that's the anchor here. The wobble comes on the other side: Jacob deGrom sits at 58% NRFI and draws a Tampa Bay lineup that plates a run in the opening frame 31% of the time, ninth-most in MLB. Globe Life's 94 run factor helps, but at 52% scoreless the model reads this closer to even than the book's 56%.

• Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 31% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Sonny Gray has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his 24 starts, and he draws a Baltimore lineup that scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time — 28th in the majors. Chris Bassitt's 62% mark against a Red Sox offense that plates a first-inning run in 27% of games adds to the quiet setup, yet the model still lands at 53% scoreless, well above the 38% the book implies. Camden Yards plays dead average for runs, so this one reads closer to a toss-up than the numbers first suggest.

• Coin flip — Sonny Gray's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Boston Red Sox's 27% first-inning bats (25th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135.5 (38% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Brandon Pfaadt has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 15 starts, but he runs into a Houston lineup that plates a first-inning run 34% of the time — third-most in MLB and 37% against righties. Ethan Pecko's 67% NRFI mark comes on just three starts, so there's little to lean on there. At neutral Daikin Park, the model's 50% sits right on the market's 48%.

• Coin flip — Brandon Pfaadt's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Cade Cavalli has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 28 starts, including each of his last five, and Tyler Glasnow's 75% mark is right there with him. The catch is the offenses: both the Dodgers and Nationals put up a first-inning run in 30% of their games, and Dodger Stadium plays slightly above average at 102. The model lands at 51% scoreless, a shade under the book's 56%.

• Coin flip — Cade Cavalli's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 30% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -148 (56% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 30% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

George Kirby has kept the first inning clean in 64% of his 25 starts, and T-Mobile Park's 83 run factor only helps that side of the ledger. The counterweight is Jeffrey Springs, who's posted a 46% NRFI mark and has faced a Seattle lineup that plates a first-inning run in 31% of its games — 11th-most in MLB. Those forces roughly cancel, hence the 51% scoreless model read against a book number of 53%.

• Coin flip — George Kirby's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.