NRFI Results

Bryce Elder has kept the first inning clean in 79% of his 24 starts, including four of his last five, and the Giants have been a quiet early bunch — scoring in the opening frame just 26% of the time, 21% against right-handers. The wild card is Anthony Molina, who has no season starts to lean on, so there's no read on how he handles an Atlanta lineup that plates a run in the 1st 30% of the time at slightly hitter-friendly Truist Park. The model sits near 53% scoreless, but that thin sample keeps confidence low despite the wide gap from the market's 7%.

• Coin flip — Bryce Elder's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 30% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -4 (7% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

Ryan Gusto has kept the first inning clean in 77% of his 13 starts, including four of his last five — that's the sturdiest number on the board here. The problem is the other half of the equation: Will Dion has no starts on the season, so there's nothing to lean on against a Marlins group that scores in the first 29% of the time. With Nationals Park playing slightly above average for runs, 50/50 feels honest.

• Coin flip — Ryan Gusto's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 31% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Payton Tolle has kept the first inning clean in all five of his last starts, and his 73% NRFI mark over 22 outings pairs with George Kirby's 67% for Seattle — two arms that rarely stumble early. The counterweight is Fenway, where the 108 run factor gives even quiet offenses room to work, and Boston's bats have only dented the first inning 25% of the time. The model lands at 50%, a shade under the book's implied 55%.

• Coin flip — Payton Tolle's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -142 (55% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Gage Jump has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his 17 starts, and Texas has been especially quiet against left-handers, plating a first-inning run just 21% of the time. The counterweight is Jacob deGrom's own 56% NRFI mark — solid, not overwhelming — with the A's scoring in the opening frame 29% of the time. The model lands at 51% scoreless, a touch below the book's implied 57%.

• Coin flip — Gage Jump's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 29% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -155 (57% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Anthony Kay and Peter Lambert have each held the first inning scoreless in roughly 70% of their starts, which normally points one direction — except Houston (35%, third-most in MLB) and Chicago (32%, sixth-most) both rank near the top in first-inning scoring. Recent form splits too: Kay is 4-for-5 in his last five, Lambert just 1-for-5. The model's 47% sits right beside the market's 49%.

• Coin flip — Anthony Kay's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 35% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Walbert Urena has kept the first inning clean in 91% of his 22 starts, including each of his last five — that's about as strong a NRFI signal as this page offers. The problem is the other half of the equation: Elmer Rodriguez sits at 60% through five starts, and the Angels put up a first-inning run in 36% of their games, second-most in MLB. Model and market both land near 50%, so it's a genuine toss-up at Angel Stadium.

• Coin flip — Walbert Urena's 91% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.

• Coin flip — Brandon Pfaadt's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.