NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 30, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
250-197
447 graded
56%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 7 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
5
Andrew Alvarez hasn't surrendered a first-inning run in 12 starts this season — a clean 100% NRFI mark — and Janson Junk isn't far behind at 84% over 19, with both righty and lefty riding 5-for-5 streaks in their last five. The counterweight is Washington's bats, which put up a run in the first 31% of the time, ninth-most in MLB, inside a slightly hitter-friendly Nationals Park. Model lands at 54% scoreless, a touch above the book's 50%.
- NRFI lean — Janson Junk (84% NRFI) and Andrew Alvarez (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -111.5 (50% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
Ranger Suarez has kept the first inning clean in 77% of his 22 starts, including each of his last five, and he draws a Boston-friendly matchup in that the Yankees only push a run across in the opening frame 28% of the time. Will Warren's 67% NRFI rate is solid enough against a Red Sox offense scoring first-inning runs in just 22% of games versus righties. Modest NRFI lean at 54%.
- NRFI lean — Ranger Suarez (77% NRFI) and Will Warren (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Parker Messick has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his 26 starts, including all five of his last five — that's the number driving this lean toward NRFI. Seth Lugo is the shakier half at 50%, but he's facing a Cleveland lineup that plates a first-inning run just 27% of the time and only 25% against righties. Add a pitcher-friendly Progressive Field (94 run factor), and the model's 53% scoreless read sits well above the book's 36%.
- NRFI lean — Parker Messick has worked a scoreless first in 92% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (36% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
Two matching 83% first-inning marks headline this one: Robbie Ray and Drew Rasmussen have each kept the opening frame clean in 20 of 24 starts, and both are riding 5-for-5 streaks over their last five. San Diego's offense is the bigger anchor, scoring in the first just 23% of the time (29th in MLB) and only 20% against righties like Rasmussen. Tampa Bay's 32% first-inning rate is the counterweight, but Tropicana Field's 95 run factor and the model's 58% NRFI read still tilt this quiet — a touch above the book's implied 53%.
- NRFI lean — Robbie Ray (83% NRFI) and Drew Rasmussen (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 58%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
Chase Burns has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his 24 starts, and he's drawing a Cubs lineup that plates a first-inning run just 27% of the time, 26% against righties. Shota Imanaga's 72% mark is a step behind but he's opposite a Reds offense that has scored in the first in only 13% of games versus lefties. With Wrigley's 94 run factor in play, the model's 58% scoreless read sits well clear of the book's 46%.
- NRFI lean — Chase Burns (88% NRFI) and Shota Imanaga (72%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at +106 (46% implied); the model has it 58%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 13% against left-handers.
YRFI Leans
2
Minnesota puts a run on the board in the first inning of 36% of its games — the highest rate in MLB — and the White Sox aren't far behind at 32%, sixth-most. Zebby Matthews has kept the first clean in exactly half of his 18 starts, but just two of his last five, while Jordan Hicks brings only one start of data to lean on. With Target Field playing 4% above average for runs, the model's 43% scoreless figure tilts YRFI, though that thin Hicks sample keeps confidence low.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -112.5 (50% implied); the model has it 43%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor does some of the heavy lifting here, and Jeffrey Springs supplies the rest — he's held the first inning scoreless in just 48% of 23 starts. Chris Bassitt pushes back at 67% NRFI with a Baltimore-friendly matchup against an Oakland lineup that scores early only 28% of the time. The model's 45% scoreless sits right on the book's 46%.
- YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Oakland Athletics score early in 28% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +107 (46% implied); the model has it 45%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 8% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
7
Mason Adams has exactly one big-league start to lean on — a clean first inning — which is nowhere near enough to trust, and that thin sample is why the model sits at 47% scoreless with low confidence. Tyler Mahle offers more substance at 62% NRFI across 21 starts, but Colorado's bats have plated a first-inning run in 32% of games at a Truist Park that plays slightly above average for runs.
- Coin flip — Tyler Mahle's 62% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 32% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (51% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Logan Gilbert has kept the first inning clean in 60% of his 25 starts, and he draws a Toronto lineup that scores in the opening frame just 23% of the time — 30th in MLB. The offset is Max Scherzer, who's held a scoreless first in only 42% of his 12 starts and just twice in his last five, with Seattle plating a first-inning run in 30% of games. Model says 49% scoreless, book 51% — essentially even at Rogers Centre.
- Coin flip — Logan Gilbert's 60% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -119 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Detroit's bats have plated a first-inning run in 33% of games — fourth-most in MLB, and 34% against righties — which is exactly the kind of number that keeps Tyler Glasnow's 71% NRFI mark from settling things. Framber Valdez counters with a 64% clean-first rate across 25 starts, and both arms are 3-for-5 over their last five. Comerica plays neutral at a 100 run factor, and the model's 47% scoreless sits below the book's implied 55%.
- Coin flip — Tyler Glasnow's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
Dustin May has kept the first inning clean in 67% of his 24 starts, and American Family Field's 94 run factor trims scoring further — solid ingredients for a quiet opening frame. The drag is Kumar Rocker, who sits at just 48% NRFI across 23 starts, giving Milwaukee's bats a real opening even though they only strike in the first 29% of the time. The model lands at 49% scoreless, essentially a toss-up against the book's 51%.
- Coin flip — Dustin May's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -119 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Braxton Ashcraft has kept the first inning clean in 76% of his 25 starts, and Matthew Liberatore isn't far off at 60% with four scoreless firsts in his last five — solid arms on both sides at a neutral Busch Stadium. Yet both offenses put up runs in the opening frame 31% of the time, top-13 marks in MLB, and the model still lands at 48% scoreless, a shade under the book's 53%. Genuinely too close to call.
- Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 18% against left-handers.
Ethan Pecko has kept the first inning clean in both of his two big-league starts, but two starts is barely a sample, which is why the model sits at a true 50/50 here. Zac Thornton has been a coin flip himself, posting a scoreless first in 5 of 10 starts, and Houston's bats — 3rd in MLB at scoring in the first at 34% — drop to 23% against lefties. Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things down a touch.
- Coin flip — Zac Thornton's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -2.5 (4% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
Zack Wheeler (82% NRFI across 22 starts) and Yusei Kikuchi (86% over seven) both keep the scoreboard clean early, which normally screams zeros — except the Angels put up first-inning runs in 35% of games, second-most in MLB, and the Phillies rank fifth at 33% (38% versus lefties). Angel Stadium's 102 run factor nudges things up too. The model's 49% scoreless sits just under the book's 52%.
- Coin flip — Yusei Kikuchi's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -127 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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