NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 28, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
239-190
429 graded
56%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
0-0 on 7 leans
NRFI 0-0 · YRFI 0-0
NRFI Leans
5
Tanner Bibee has kept the first inning clean in all five of his last starts, and 77% across 26 outings overall — a nice complement to Michael Wacha's 80% NRFI rate on the Kansas City side. Progressive Field's 94 run factor trims the margins further, and Cleveland has only plated a first-inning run in 27% of its games. The model's 55% scoreless read sits a touch above the market's 52%.
- NRFI lean — Michael Wacha (80% NRFI) and Tanner Bibee (77%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
Casey Mize has kept the first inning clean in 95% of his 20 starts, and Shane McClanahan counters at 86% with a scoreless first in each of his last five. The Padres' bats give that pairing extra room — San Diego plates a first-inning run just 24% of the time, 29th in MLB — though Tampa Bay's 32% mark is the one crack here. The model's 59% NRFI sits eight points above the book.
- NRFI lean — Casey Mize (95% NRFI) and Shane McClanahan (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 59%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
Cam Schlittler has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 26 starts, and he's drawing a Red Sox lineup that plates a first-inning run just 25% of the time — 27th in MLB, and only 22% against righties. The counterweight is Patrick Sandoval, whose 75% NRFI rate meets a Yankees group that scores early 36% of the time versus lefties. Model at 56%, book at 55% — a mild NRFI tilt with little separation.
- NRFI lean — Patrick Sandoval (75% NRFI) and Cam Schlittler (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- NRFI lean — Dylan Cease has worked a scoreless first in 70% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -161 (58% implied).
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
Logan Henderson has kept the first inning clean in 85% of his 13 starts, and Cody Bradford checks in at 75% over his four — a pairing that lines up nicely against two offenses that plate a first-inning run just 28% of the time. American Family Field's 94 run factor trims the margins further. The model's 55% NRFI sits a touch above the book's implied 52%.
- NRFI lean — Cody Bradford (75% NRFI) and Logan Henderson (85%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
2
Minnesota's offense strikes in the opening frame 35% of the time — second-most in the majors — and Luis Castillo has protected the first in just two of his last five starts, a wobble off his 57% season mark. Dean Kremer has been the steadier side lately at 4-of-5, but Target Field's 104 park factor doesn't help him much. The model's 43% scoreless figure sits below the book's 48%, tilting YRFI.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 43%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
No offense in baseball puts runs on the board in the first more often than the Angels, who have scored in the opening frame in 35% of their games, and the Phillies aren't far behind at 33% (37% against lefties). That's the case for YRFI, along with Andrew Painter slipping to a scoreless first in just 2 of his last 5 starts. Reid Detmers is the pushback at 76% NRFI, which keeps the model close to the book's coin-flip read.
- YRFI lean — the Los Angeles Angels push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
8
Rhett Lowder has kept the first inning clean in 63% of his 19 starts, and he's drawing a Cubs lineup that scores in the opening frame just 25% of the time — 25th in MLB. The counterweight is David Peterson, scoreless in the first in only 44% of his 16 outings, though Cincinnati has plated a first-inning run in just 14% of games against lefties. Wrigley's 94 run factor nudges things quiet, but at 51% scoreless the model sees a true toss-up.
- Coin flip — Rhett Lowder's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 26% first-inning bats (23rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 14% against left-handers.
Drew Anderson hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his six starts, and Tarik Skubal counters with a 67% NRFI rate that includes four clean openers in his last five. The catch is the bats: Detroit puts up a first-inning run in 33% of games, fourth-most in MLB, and the Dodgers aren't far behind at 31%. Comerica plays neutral, so the model's 49% scoreless read sits just under the book's 55%.
- Coin flip — Drew Anderson's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 33% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
Eury Perez has kept the first inning clean in five straight starts and 73% of his 22 overall, which is the anchor on Miami's side of this one. The complication is Jackson Kent, who's protected a scoreless first in just one of his last three and only 33% across a three-start sample, facing a Nationals-friendly slate — Washington plates a first-inning run in 32% of games, seventh-most in MLB. At 48% scoreless in a slightly hitter-leaning Nationals Park, it's close to even.
- Coin flip — Eury Perez's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
Hunter Brown has kept the first inning clean in 77% of his 13 starts, and Christian Scott isn't far behind at 74% over 19 — yet this one still sits near even. The reason is Houston's lineup, which plates a first-inning run in 34% of games, third-most in MLB and 37% against righties, offsetting a Mets offense that scores early just 26% of the time. Citi Field's 96 run factor nudges things down, but at a model 52% against a book-implied 53%, there's nothing to separate.
- Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -129 (53% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
Grant Holmes has kept the first inning clean in 86% of his 22 starts and is riding a 5-for-5 stretch, which is about as strong a half-inning signal as you'll find. The problem is the other side: Tomoyuki Sugano sits at 50% NRFI and has posted just two clean firsts in his last five, and Atlanta plates a run in the opening frame 31% of the time inside a slightly hitter-friendly Truist Park. Model and market land together near 47-48%.
- Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 32% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Jared Jones has kept the first inning clean in 80% of his 15 starts, and the Cardinals have only pushed a run across against righties 26% of the time — that side of the ledger points firmly toward zeros. The wrinkle is Quinn Mathews, whose 67% NRFI mark comes from just three starts, too thin to lean on against a Pittsburgh lineup that scores first-inning runs 31% of the time. Neutral Busch Stadium leaves it near even.
- Coin flip — Jared Jones' 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 18% against left-handers.
- Coin flip — Jacob Lopez's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -4 (7% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 8% against left-handers.
Oracle Park's 94 run factor and a Giants offense that plates a first-inning run just 25% of the time — 28th in MLB, and only 22% against left-handers like Kohl Drake — are the tidiest arguments for a quiet opening frame. The catch is that both starters are sitting at exactly 50% NRFI across four outings, with Drake and Blade Tidwell each going 2-for-4 lately. The model's 53% barely separates it from the market's 50%.
- Coin flip — Kohl Drake's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 30% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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