NRFI Results

Ryan Gusto's 73% first-inning shutout rate over 11 starts is the sturdiest number on the board, and the Marlins' bats plate a run in the first just 28% of the time. But Washington's lineup is more dangerous, ranking sixth in MLB at scoring early and doing it 33% against righties like Brad Lord. That tug-of-war lands this one squarely at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Ryan Gusto's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Sean Burke's 75% first-inning zero rate over 20 starts headlines this one, and he's backed by Manaea, who's carried a scoreless first in five straight. The bats don't push back much either — the Mets score in the opening frame just 27% of the time. Even so, the White Sox rank ninth in MLB for first-inning offense, which keeps this closer to a coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Sean Burke's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -141 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

J.T. Ginn brings an elite 82% first-inning shutout rate into Daikin Park, but he'll face a Houston lineup that plates a run in the opening frame 34% of the time — third-most in MLB and 37% against righties. That tension is exactly why this one splits down the middle at 50%, right in line with the book's 52% NRFI read.

• Coin flip — J.T. Ginn's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Noah Cameron has been elite in openers for Kansas City, holding an 83% NRFI mark across 23 starts and slamming the door in his last five. The tension is Detroit's bats, who plate a first-inning run in 34% of games — second-most in MLB — though only 30% against lefties. With Melton solid at 64% NRFI, it's a genuine toss-up at 49%.

• Coin flip — Noah Cameron's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Reid Detmers brings a strong 75% first-inning shutout rate into Globe Life Field, and MacKenzie Gore isn't far behind at 68%, giving both starters the edge on paper. The wrinkle is the Angels' bat: LA leads MLB in first-inning scoring at 34%, and 37% against lefties like Gore. With those forces pulling against each other, the model lands at a near-even 51% NRFI.

• Coin flip — Reid Detmers' 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, the most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.

Nick Lodolo brings the sharper first-inning profile here, holding a 79% NRFI mark across 14 starts and stranding trouble in four of his last five. The counter is Chase Field's 106 run factor and Eduardo Rodriguez's shakier 58% NRFI. With both lineups scoring early roughly a quarter of the time, the model lands at 48% scoreless — essentially a coin flip against the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — Nick Lodolo's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 30% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Randy Vasquez's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Two strong first-inning arms headline this one, with Bubba Chandler protecting a 78% NRFI mark and Yamamoto right behind at 71%, both scoreless in four of their last five. The offenses don't push back much either — the Dodgers plate a first-inning run just 31% of the time, the Pirates 30% — but Dodger Stadium's slightly elevated run factor keeps it at a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Bubba Chandler's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -133.5 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.