NRFI Results

Michael McGreevy's 77% first-inning shutout rate over 22 starts is the strongest arm here, but Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor and Brady Singer's more middling 59% NRFI muddy the picture. Cincinnati's bats have gone quiet early lately, so Singer's 5-for-5 clean first frames in his last five starts help balance things out. The model lands at 48%, right on the fence.

• Coin flip — Michael McGreevy's 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Randy Dobnak has been stingy early, posting an 83% NRFI mark across his six starts, and Gage Jump backs him with a solid 73% clip for Oakland. Neither lineup does much damage in the first, as the Royals and A's each score in the opening frame just around 30% of the time. Even with Kauffman playing slightly hitter-friendly, the model splits it right down the middle at 50%.

• Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -128 (52% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

George Kirby brings a strong 68% first-inning shutout rate into Milwaukee, but the surrounding numbers keep this one dead even. Robert Gasser's 57% NRFI clip is more modest, and both offenses are middling early — the Brewers plate a run in the first just 28% of the time, the Mariners 29%. American Family Field's 94 run factor nudges toward pitching, yet the model lands right at 51%.

• Coin flip — George Kirby's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 29% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Grant Holmes brings serious first-inning credentials to Chicago, posting an 86% NRFI mark across 21 starts and holding the line in all five of his last five. The White Sox counter with Anthony Kay, whose 68% NRFI rate is solid but a notch below, and Atlanta's bats plate a first-inning run just 26% of the time versus lefties. With both offenses quiet early, the model's slim 52% scoreless read fits the coin-flip label.

• Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110.5 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Andrew Alvarez has yet to allow a first-inning run across 10 starts, a spotless mark that anchors the NRFI case here. But deGrom's 57% first-inning clean rate is more ordinary, and Washington's bats rank sixth in MLB for first-inning scoring — enough to keep this a true coin flip, with the model's 51% just shy of the book's 53%.

• Coin flip — Andrew Alvarez's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -131.5 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Peter Lambert's 76% first-inning NRFI mark headlines this one, and Grayson Rodriguez isn't far behind at 69% over 13 starts. The catch is that both offenses come in hot early — Houston plots up in the 1st in 33% of games and the Angels rank third in MLB at 34%. That tug-of-war lands the model at 48%, right on top of the book's 49%.

• Coin flip — Peter Lambert's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109.5 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.