NRFI Results

Camden Yards plays neutral, and both starters have kept the first frame clean lately — Carlos Rodon and Shane Baz each landed a scoreless first in four of their last five. Baltimore's bats have been especially quiet early, scoring in just 25% of first innings and only 9% against lefties like Rodon. Still, our model splits it dead even at 50%, a true coin flip despite the book's 93% NRFI read.

• Coin flip — Carlos Rodon's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 30% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (93% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 9% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Keider Montero's 85% first-inning NRFI mark over 20 starts is the standout number here, but he's slipped lately, allowing runs in three of his last five. Ashcraft counters at 74% for Pittsburgh, though the Tigers own MLB's top first-inning scoring rate at 34% and hit 36% against righties. Those offensive marks keep this one squarely a coin flip at 51%.

• Coin flip — Keider Montero's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Zack Wheeler is the anchor here, sitting on an 85% first-inning scoreless rate across 20 starts and holding the frame in four of his last five, which should quiet a Marlins lineup that scores early in just 29% of games. The wild card is Cade Gibson, who hasn't thrown a big-league start yet, and Philadelphia scores in the first 35% of the time versus lefties. That thin sample keeps this a true 51% toss-up.

• Coin flip — Zack Wheeler's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Kyle Leahy carries a sparkling 86% NRFI mark across 22 starts and is 5-for-5 in his last five, which pulls this one toward a quiet frame. The trouble is the other side: Andrew Abbott's 54% NRFI is far shakier, and Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor gives St. Louis's bats room to strike. That tension leaves it right at a 48% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Ranger Suarez brings a strong 75% NRFI mark to the mound, and Merrill Kelly counters with a spotless 5-for-5 zero-run first over his last five starts. The two arms would normally tilt this toward NRFI, but Fenway's 108 park factor and Arizona's slightly above-average offense (31% first-inning scoring) balance it back to a genuine 50/50 tossup.

• Coin flip — Ranger Suarez's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Daniel Lynch IV has kept the first inning scoreless in both his starts, but two outings is far too small a sample to bank on. On the other side, Jack Perkins carries a middling 55% NRFI over 11 starts, and neither the Royals (31% first-inning scoring) nor the Athletics (29%) does much damage early. With Kauffman playing slightly hitter-friendly at a 102 park factor, this shapes up as a genuine coin flip.

• Books price this NRFI at +105 (46% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Bryan Hudson has been stingy early, posting an 83% NRFI mark across six starts and clearing the first in four of his last five. The Cubs' bats only strike in the opening frame 25% of the time, but the White Sox counter with a top-10 first-inning offense that plates a run 33% of games. That tension against Gausman's more modest 63% NRFI keeps this near even.

• Coin flip — Bryan Hudson's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 33% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (48% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Cal Quantrill has kept the first inning clean in 88% of his eight starts, including five straight, which anchors the case for a quiet frame at Globe Life Field. The catch is Jackson Kent's lone big-league start — a 100% NRFI mark off a single game tells us almost nothing. With Washington's bats plating a first-inning run 33% of the time versus lefties, this stays a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cal Quantrill's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Cristian Javier brings the sturdier top line here, posting an 80% NRFI mark across five starts, and George Klassen isn't far behind at 75% over his four. The offenses are what keep this a genuine toss-up, though — both the Astros and Angels rank near the top of MLB in first-inning scoring, plating a run 34% of the time. The model settles at exactly 47%, matching the book with no edge either way.

• Coin flip — Cristian Javier's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -102 (47% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.