NRFI Results

Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor tilts toward offense, but there's barely any starter data to trust here — Quinn Mathews has just one big-league start under his belt, and Kent Emanuel hasn't logged a season start at all. The Reds have scored in the first only 17% of the time against lefties, which offsets St. Louis's steadier 31% first-inning rate, leaving this one a genuine toss-up.

• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• Great American Ball Park boosts scoring (run factor 106).

Both starters enter locked in over their last five outings, with Janson Junk (82% NRFI) and Cristopher Sanchez (78%) each posting a clean 5-for-5 recently. That pitching pedigree pulls this toward a scoreless first, but Citizens Bank Park's 102 run factor and Philadelphia's first-inning offense — active in 32% of games, ninth-most in MLB — keep it a genuine coin flip at 52%.

• Coin flip — Janson Junk's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -112 (49% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Andre Pallante brings a stingy 70% first-inning shutout rate into Cincinnati and has kept the board clean in all five of his last five starts. Working against him is Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly 106 run factor, plus Rhett Lowder's shakier 59% NRFI mark. With the Reds only scoring first 27% of the time, the model lands right on the fence at 48% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Andre Pallante's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at 0 (0% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Carmen Mlodzinski's 80% first-inning NRFI mark over 10 starts is the standout, and the Pirates offense has plodded through scoreless openers 70% of the time. The counterweight is Detroit's bats, which score in the first 34% of the time (2nd-most in MLB) and a healthy 35% against lefties like Framber Valdez. That tension keeps this one a genuine coin flip at 49%.

• Coin flip — Carmen Mlodzinski's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -117.5 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Mitch Bratt has kept the first frame clean in 71% of his seven starts, but that's a thin sample, and Boston's Alec Gamboa hasn't thrown a big-league inning yet, leaving his side a total unknown. The Red Sox rarely strike early — scoring in the first just 24% against lefties — yet Fenway's 108 park factor and Arizona's steadier bats even things out to a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Mitch Bratt's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Michael Wacha is the anchor here, posting a stellar 83% NRFI across 23 starts with four scoreless first innings in his last five. The problem is on the other side: Mason Barnett has held the first inning scoreless in just 33% of his three starts, and Kansas City's bats haven't been threatening early. Those competing signals leave this close to a true coin flip at 51% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Michael Wacha's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -107.5 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Two reliable first-inning arms headline this one: Martin Perez has posted a 74% NRFI mark across 19 starts, and Bailey Ober counters at 71% over 17. That normally screams NRFI, but Target Field's 104 run factor and a Twins lineup that plates a first-inning run 33% of the time — sixth-most in MLB — keep this closer to a toss-up. The model's 48% barely nudges the market's 45%.

• Coin flip — Martin Perez's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (45% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Imanaga's 74% first-inning shutout rate over 23 starts is the strongest arm on the board, and paired with a Cubs lineup that only scores in the first 25% of the time, the home side tilts NRFI. But Castillo's 63% mark faces a White Sox offense that plates a run early 33% of games, keeping this near a true coin flip at 52%.

• Coin flip — Shota Imanaga's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 33% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118.5 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.