NRFI Results

Anthony Kay has kept the first inning clean in 71% of his 21 starts and rides a perfect 5-for-5 streak, while Troy Melton counters with a 69% NRFI mark and four scoreless firsts in his last five. Both offenses are pedestrian at getting on the board early — Detroit at 34%, Chicago at 32% — but that Tigers lineup ranks fourth in MLB, which keeps this a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Anthony Kay's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Logan Webb's 80% first-inning shutdown rate over 20 starts is the anchor here, and the Giants' offense scoring in the opening frame just 22% of the time only tightens the leash on Colorado's bats. But the Rockies rank third in MLB at putting up a first-inning run (34%), and Michael Lorenzen's shakier 57% NRFI mark keeps this dead even at Oracle Park.

• Coin flip — Logan Webb's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Brad Lord has kept the first inning clean in both of his starts, but a two-game sample doesn't say much, which is why the model sits at just 51%. Sean Manaea's 64% NRFI rate helps against a Mets lineup that scores early only 26% of the time, though Washington's bats rank 2nd in MLB at first-inning scoring. Slightly pitcher-friendly Citi Field can't tip this true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Sean Manaea's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -132 (53% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Ryan Gusto's 70% first-inning shutout rate over 10 starts is the sturdiest number here, and Brady Singer counters with five straight clean firsts, so both arms are trending in the same direction. The pull toward runs comes from Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor. With neither offense cracking 31% first-inning scoring, this one sits right at a 48% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Ryan Gusto's 70% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 29% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Jesus Luzardo has been a first-inning wall for Philadelphia, posting a 96% NRFI rate across 23 starts with a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. The tension comes from Connor Prielipp, whose 56% NRFI number and 2-for-5 recent stretch drag the Twins' side down, especially at run-friendly Target Field. Model sits at 49% scoreless — basically a wash against the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 96% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

Emerson Hancock brings the sturdiest arm to Daikin Park, posting an 80% first-inning shutout rate across 20 starts and going scoreless in four of his last five. That form is offset by Houston's bats, which plate a first-inning run in 34% of games — fifth-most in MLB. With Wesneski far less proven over just three starts, this one grades out as a true coin flip at 50%.

• Coin flip — Emerson Hancock's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Grant Holmes is the anchor here, sitting on an 85% first-inning NRFI mark across 20 starts and a perfect 5-for-5 in his last five. The tension comes from the other side: Eduardo Rodriguez is a shakier 61% NRFI, and Arizona's bats plate a first-inning run 32% of the time. That split explains why the model lands at 49%, essentially matching the book's 48%.

• Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Jacob Misiorowski has been elite out of the gate, posting an 86% first-inning shutout rate across 21 starts, and he's a strong reason to lean NRFI here. The wobble comes on the other side: Justin Wrobleski sits at just 63% and has allowed a first-inning run in three of his last five. With the Dodgers scoring early in 32% of games, this one stays a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

Randy Dobnak has kept the first frame clean in 80% of his five starts, and Reid Detmers isn't far behind at 74% over a much larger sample of 23. The pushback comes from the Angels lineup, which plots up in the opening inning more than any team in baseball at 35%. That tug-of-war lands this one at a true coin flip, with the model's 48% sitting just under the market's 51%.

• Coin flip — Randy Dobnak's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (51% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.