NRFI Results
First-inning leans for August 12, 2026, graded from final box scores.
All-time lean record
302-249
551 graded
55%
hit rate
NRFI
YRFI
5-3 on 8 leans
NRFI 3-0 · YRFI 2-3
NRFI Leans
3
Kyle Leahy has posted a first-inning zero in each of his last five starts, part of an 86% NRFI mark over 21 outings, and Zack Wheeler counters at 84% across 19 starts. With the Cardinals scoring in the opening frame just 30% of the time — and only 25% against righties — the model's 53% scoreless read tilts this toward NRFI, edging the book's 52%.
- NRFI lean — Zack Wheeler (84% NRFI) and Kyle Leahy (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
Robbie Ray has kept the first frame clean in 81% of his 21 starts, and he's carried that into five straight scoreless openers at Petco. Dustin May brings his own 67% NRFI mark to the mound, matching that recent 5-for-5 stretch, while San Diego's bats push a run across in the first just 24% of the time. The pitching edge nudges this toward NRFI at 56%.
- NRFI lean — Dustin May (67% NRFI) and Robbie Ray (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
Jose Soriano has posted a zero in the first across all five of his last five starts, and his 73% NRFI mark on the season backs up that recent run. Ranger Suarez counters with a 74% clip of his own, facing a Toronto lineup that plates a first-inning run just 22% of the time — and only 18% against lefties. Two quiet-inning arms nudge this toward NRFI.
- NRFI lean — Ranger Suarez (74% NRFI) and Jose Soriano (73%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -156 (57% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 18% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
5
Zebby Matthews is the crack in this one — his 47% first-inning scoreless rate over 15 starts, plus just 2 clean first innings in his last 5, gives Baltimore's bats an opening at Target Field's run-friendly 104 park factor. Shane Baz has been steadier at 64% NRFI, but Minnesota scores in the first 32% of the time, nudging this toward a YRFI lean.
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 32% of games (7th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Sutter Health Park and its 117 run factor tilts this toward YRFI, and Jack Perkins does little to calm nerves — his 50% NRFI rate and just 2 of 5 clean first innings recently make him vulnerable. The Rays rank 4th in MLB scoring in the first at 34%, a tougher test than Perkins has been passing. Drew Rasmussen's 81% NRFI is the lone brake here.
- YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Tampa Bay Rays score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at -111 (49% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
Chase Field's hitter-friendly run factor (106) tilts this one toward first-inning offense, and Colorado's bats back that up — the Rockies plate a run in the opening frame 34% of the time, third-most in MLB. Neither Ryan Feltner (71% NRFI) nor Merrill Kelly (67%) has been shaky early, but the model still sees just a 46% chance of a scoreless first, nudging this to a YRFI lean.
- YRFI lean — Chase Field (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +104 (46% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
- YRFI lean — the Washington Nationals push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 26% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
Eric Lauer's shaky first-inning track record is the story here — a 50% NRFI mark over 14 starts and just 3 of his last 5 kept clean, which tilts things toward YRFI. Daniel Lynch IV shows a perfect 1-for-1 NRFI, but that lone start tells us almost nothing. With both KC and LA scoring in the first about a third of the time, the model's 46% scoreless read sits well under the market's 62%.
- YRFI lean — the Kansas City Royals push a first-inning run across in 32% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at +8 (62% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
Coin Flips
7
Bryan King making his first career start injects real uncertainty here, and with no track record to lean on, the model can only muster a 49% scoreless read. Houser hasn't helped his own cause, posting just a 31% NRFI over 13 starts and going scoreless in only two of his last five. Houston's bats crack the scoreboard early 33% of the time, sixth-most in MLB — enough to keep this a genuine toss-up.
- Coin flip — Adrian Houser's 31% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -1 (2% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
Foster Griffin has been terrific out of the gate, posting an 82% first-inning shutout rate across 22 starts, and Framber Valdez brings his own 68% NRFI mark to Comerica. The catch is Detroit's lineup, which plates a first-inning run 34% of the time — fifth-most in MLB — so the model settles at a near-even 52%, still well above the book's 36% implied NRFI.
- Coin flip — Foster Griffin's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -129 (36% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
Janson Junk carries the sharper edge here, riding a perfect 5-for-5 NRFI streak into loanDepot park to go with an 81% clean-first rate over 16 starts. Carmen Mlodzinski matches him reasonably well at 78%, though he's been shakier lately at 3-for-5. With both lineups scoring in the first only about 30% of the time, the 51% model number reflects a genuine toss-up.
- Coin flip — Janson Junk's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
Bryce Miller has kept the first frame clean in 75% of his 12 starts, and Will Warren isn't far behind at 71% over 21 outings, so both starters lean toward a quiet opening. The Yankees plate a run in the first just 24% of the time against righties, matching Seattle's own 24% mark versus this hand. The model splits it at 51% scoreless — a genuine coin flip.
- Coin flip — Bryce Miller's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (93% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
Tyler Mahle brings the steadier profile here, sitting at 61% NRFI across 18 starts and holding a clean first frame in four of his last five. Zac Thornton drags the other direction at just 43% over seven outings, though the Mets' bats have plated a first-inning run in only 27% of games. With a slightly hitter-friendly park factor of 102, the model lands at 48% — essentially a wash.
- Coin flip — Tyler Mahle's 61% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
Castillo's steady 61% first-inning shutout rate is the anchor here, and Lowder's 56% mark keeps things respectable on the other side. Neither offense pushes back hard — the Reds plate a first-inning run just 27% of the time, and the White Sox sit at 30% against righties. The 48% model number lands almost exactly where you'd expect, hence the coin-flip label.
- Coin flip — Luis Castillo's 61% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +106 (46% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Cal Quantrill's 86% first-inning shutout rate across seven starts is the headliner here, and it's the main reason the model still sees a near-even split despite the Angels owning MLB's most frequent first-inning offense (36%). Klassen has been solid too at 67% NRFI, but his short three-start sample and that potent Angels bat against Texas leave this one genuinely tough to call.
- Coin flip — Cal Quantrill's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 36% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -2 (3% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
First-inning results graded from final box scores. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
Want full matchup analysis & AI picks? →
Pitcher arsenals, bullpen context, lineup splits, and AI-powered MLB prop analysis — free to start.
Get Started FreeOr browse today’s MLB games or MLB player props.