NRFI Results

Bryce Elder's 81% NRFI mark over 21 starts anchors this one for Atlanta, and Christian Scott isn't far behind at 75% across 16 outings — both riding 5-for-5 scoreless first innings in their last five. Neither lineup does much early, with the Mets scoring in only 26% of opening frames, though Truist's slightly hitter-friendly 102 park factor keeps this close to a true coin flip at 53%.

• Coin flip — Bryce Elder's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 30% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114.5 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Trevor Rogers is the reason to like the under here, posting an 85% NRFI clip over 20 starts with a clean 5-for-5 in his last five. The problem sits on the other side: Dean Kremer has escaped the first just 38% of the time across eight starts, and Minnesota's bats plate a run in the opening frame 33% of games. Those competing forces land this one at a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Trevor Rogers' 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 33% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 33% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Hunter Dobbins has been sharp early for St. Louis, posting an 80% NRFI mark across five starts, but his sample is small and Andrew Painter has cooled fast, going scoreless in the first just once over his last five outings. With the Cardinals scoring first in only 25% of games against righties and the Phillies at 31%, the model lands at 48% — right around a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Hunter Dobbins' 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +107 (45% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Two lefties with strong first-inning track records square off, as MacKenzie Gore (70% NRFI) and Reid Detmers (73%) both keep runs off the board early. The tension is the Angels bat, which plates a first-inning run in a league-high 35% of games and 36% versus lefties. That bumps the coin-flip vibe, with the model at 47% scoreless against the book's 51%.

• Coin flip — Reid Detmers' 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.

Jacob Lopez has been nearly untouchable early, posting a 93% NRFI mark across 14 starts and a perfect 5/5 over his last five. Freddy Peralta's 73% rate is solid but a touch shakier, and Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor tilts things offense-friendly. With both bats scoring in the first roughly 30% of the time, the model lands at a true 48% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jacob Lopez's 93% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -103.5 (48% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Blade Tidwell has yet to log a scoreless first in his lone start, and the Astros back one of the game's most dangerous early lineups — 5th in MLB at scoring in the first and up at 36% against right-handers. But San Francisco's bats rank near the bottom in first-inning offense, and Oracle Park's suppressed run factor pulls this back toward a true coin flip.

• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
• Oracle Park suppresses scoring (run factor 94).

Noah Cameron brings an elite 81% NRFI mark into Dodger Stadium and has posted a scoreless first in four of his last five, but the Dodgers score in the opening frame 32% of the time — ninth-most in MLB. Skubal counters with a perfect 5-for-5 NRFI run lately, though the model still lands at 49%, a touch under the book's 52%.

• Coin flip — Noah Cameron's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.