NRFI Results

Ryan Johnson has locked down the first frame in 75% of his eight starts, and he'll face a Baltimore lineup that plates a run in the first just 24% of the time — 27th in MLB. The tension comes on the other side: the Angels lead the majors in first-inning scoring at 35%, testing Brandon Young's 67% NRFI mark. That push lands this one right at a 50/50 split.

• Coin flip — Ryan Johnson's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +103 (46% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, the most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Andrew Abbott brings the only real track record here, and it's a mixed one: a 55% NRFI rate across 22 starts, but he's coughed up first-inning runs in four of his last five. Mason Barnett's perfect NRFI mark comes from a single outing, so there's little to lean on. With both offenses scoring early just 28% of the time inside a hitter-friendly park at Great American, this shapes up as a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Andrew Abbott's 55% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

Braxton Ashcraft brings a strong 76% first-inning shutout rate into Milwaukee, and Dustin May counters having kept the first frame clean in all five of his last starts. The tension comes from Pittsburgh's bats, who plate a first-inning run 35% of the time against righties. With American Family Field playing below average for runs (94 factor), the model sees a near even 53% NRFI.

• Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -142 (55% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 26% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Ranger Suarez brings the stronger arm to this one, sitting on a 72% first-inning NRFI rate across 18 starts, and Boston's bats have gone quiet early, plating a first-inning run just 25% of the time. But Fenway's 108 park factor and Luis Castillo's shakier 59% NRFI, including runs in three of his last five, keep things balanced at a near 50-50 read.

• Coin flip — Ranger Suarez's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.

Janson Junk carries an 80% first-inning NRFI mark into Truist Park, and he's been perfect lately with five clean opening frames in his last five starts. Martin Perez counters at 71%, though his 3-of-5 recent run leaves a little more wiggle room. Both offenses score in the first just 31% of the time, but the book's 62% NRFI still feels rich against the model's even 50%.

• Coin flip — Janson Junk's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 31% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +6 (62% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.

Michael Wacha has been a first-inning wall for the Royals, sitting scoreless in 81% of his 21 starts and holding it four of his last five. Ober counters with a solid 73% NRFI, though his recent form has wobbled at 2-of-5. With Minnesota's bats scoring in the first 34% of the time and the model matching the book at 49%, this one profiles as a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Michael Wacha's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.