NRFI Results

Parker Messick's 90% first-inning shutout rate across 21 starts anchors this lean toward NRFI, and the Guardians offense he's paired against ranks 26th in MLB at putting up first-inning runs, plating one just 22% of the time versus lefties. Kohl Drake's spotless mark is a small two-start sample, but the model still gives NRFI a 57% edge in a pitcher-friendly Progressive Field.

• NRFI lean — Parker Messick has worked a scoreless first in 90% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 24% against left-handers.

Walker Buehler carries an outstanding 81% first-inning scoreless rate across 21 starts, and he's staring down a Giants lineup that plates a first-inning run just 17% of the time against righties. Tyler Mahle backs it with a solid 63% NRFI mark, while San Diego's bats rank 30th in MLB at scoring early. Petco's below-average 94 run factor only tightens the lean.

• NRFI lean — Tyler Mahle (63% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (81%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 58%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 17% against right-handers.

Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor sets the tone, and Andrew Abbott brings a shaky 52% NRFI mark that's slipped to just 3-of-5 clean over his last five starts. The Pirates' bats also plate a first-inning run 33% of the time, 11th-most in MLB, giving Cincinnati's lefty little margin. Those factors tilt this one toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — Great American Ball Park (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Pittsburgh Pirates score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -135.5 (37% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.

Houston's bats set the tone here — the Astros put a run on the board in the first inning 36% of the time, the most in MLB, and 39% against righties like Ronel Blanco. Blanco's thin two-start sample gives little to lean on, and even Jacob deGrom's solid 55% NRFI rate may not fully offset that leadoff pressure, nudging this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Reynaldo Lopez is the wild card here: he's kept the first inning scoreless in just 30% of his 10 starts, one of the shakier marks you'll find. Pair that with Washington's lineup, which strikes in the opening frame 35% of the time (4th-most in MLB) and 36% against righties, and the YRFI case builds quickly at hitter-friendly Truist Park.

• YRFI lean — the Washington Nationals push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +120 (43% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Coors Field and its 128 run factor are doing a lot of the heavy lifting here, tilting things toward YRFI despite a couple of respectable arms. Ryan Feltner has actually posted a solid 67% NRFI over 15 starts, and Luinder Avila sits at 55%, but Colorado plates a first-inning run 34% of the time — fifth-most in the majors. The model's 39% scoreless read sits just under the book's 41%.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +128 (41% implied); the model has it 39%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Sutter Health Park's 117 run factor gives the edge to the bats here, and Jack Perkins hasn't done much to slow anyone down with just a 50% first-inning shutout rate over eight starts. Detroit's lineup ranks 10th in MLB for first-frame scoring and pushes a run across 34% of the time against righties, which tilts this one toward a YRFI.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Detroit Tigers score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +105 (46% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 31% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Kevin Gausman brings a solid 62% NRFI mark into Rogers Centre, and Toronto's bats have been quiet early, plating a run in just 23% of first innings — and only 16% against lefties like Matthew Liberatore. But Liberatore's own 55% NRFI rate is shakier, and the Cardinals score in the first 30% of the time, keeping this one close to even.

• Coin flip — Kevin Gausman's 62% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Drew Rasmussen has kept the first frame clean in 79% of his 19 starts, including four of his last five, which normally tilts things NRFI. The catch is on the other side: Jordan Hicks brings no starts this season, so there's little to gauge how Tampa Bay's bats — who score early 33% of the time — will handle him. That uncertainty keeps this a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Drew Rasmussen's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Tyler Phillips holds a solid 64% NRFI mark across 11 starts, and the Mets rank 23rd in first-inning scoring, plating a run in just 26% of games. But Zac Thornton's shakier 40% NRFI number pulls this back toward even, and the pitcher-friendly Citi Field run factor of 96 doesn't tilt things much. The result is a true 50/50 split.

• Coin flip — Tyler Phillips' 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park (83 run factor) is the backdrop, and Connor Prielipp's 64% first-inning scoreless rate gives Minnesota a solid edge in the opening frame. The tension comes from the Twins' own lineup, which plates a first-inning run 36% of the time — second-most in MLB — against Logan Gilbert. That clash keeps the model at a near-even 51% NRFI, well above the book's 39%.

• Coin flip — Connor Prielipp's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -141.5 (39% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

Cristopher Sanchez brings a strong 75% NRFI mark into Camden Yards, and Baltimore's offense makes him look even better — the Orioles plate a first-inning run just 25% of the time, and only 11% against lefties. On the other side, Shane Baz has been perfect over his last five starts but faces a Phillies lineup that scores early 34% of the time, keeping this one squarely a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cristopher Sanchez's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 11% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Max Fried has carried a sturdy 73% first-inning NRFI mark across 11 starts, and the Cubs plate a first-inning run just 25% of the time — 26% against lefties. The wrinkle is David Peterson, whose 42% NRFI sits well below Fried's, and the Yankees rank 7th in early scoring at 39% versus left-handers. Wrigley's 94 run factor tempers things, leaving this at a true 50/50.

• Coin flip — Max Fried's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -167.5 (59% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 39% against left-handers.

Yamamoto has kept the first frame clean in all five of his last five starts, and Boston's bats have been quiet early — plating a run in just 23% of games and only 20% against righties. The counterweight is Tolle, who's stumbled to a 1-for-5 NRFI stretch, and Dodger Stadium's slightly hitter-friendly 102 park factor. It nets out to a genuine 50/50, though the book's 37% NRFI leaves some daylight.

• Coin flip — Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 72% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -134.5 (37% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Jose Soriano brings the sharper resume into Angel Stadium, sitting at 71% NRFI across 21 starts and scoreless in the first inning all five of his last outings. Robert Gasser has been solid too at 64%, and Milwaukee's bats score in the opening frame just 28% of the time. The catch is the Angels' lineup, third-most likely in MLB to strike first, which keeps this one hovering near a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jose Soriano's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 35% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.