NRFI Results

Paul Skenes brings a stellar 76% NRFI mark across 21 starts, and the Reds have only pushed a run across in the first 27% of the time. The problem is on the other side: Hunter Greene has escaped a clean first in just one of his four outings, and Great American Ball Park's 106 run factor plays right into Pittsburgh's bats. That split leaves this one a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Paul Skenes' 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -146 (56% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

• Coin flip — Andrew Painter's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +3.5 (63% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Kyle Leahy has been a first-inning brick wall for St. Louis, posting an 84% NRFI mark across 19 starts and holding the line in each of his last five. Toronto's bats do little to challenge that, scoring in the first just 23% of the time — 28th in MLB. Dylan Cease is the softer side at 61% NRFI, which nudges this toward a genuine 53% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Nick Martinez has been a first-inning wall for Tampa Bay, posting an 89% NRFI mark across 19 starts and holding scoreless in four of his last five. The other side is where it wobbles: Erick Fedde sits at just 36% and has been scored on in four of his last five, and the Rays plate a first-inning run in 34% of games. That split lands this one right at a 49% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Nick Martinez's 89% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 34% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -4 (7% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Janson Junk brings a strong 79% first-inning shutout rate into Citi Field, riding five straight clean openers, which pairs nicely against a Mets lineup that scores in the first just 26% of the time. Senga counters at 71% NRFI, though the Marlins push runs across a bit more often. With the model at 53% scoreless, this one sits right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Janson Junk's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 31% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Both starters have been stingy early — Foster Griffin sits at 85% NRFI with a clean 5-for-5 over his last five, and Bryce Elder isn't far behind at 79%. The tension comes from Washington's bats, which score in the first 35% of the time (4th-most in MLB) and a healthy 37% against righties. That lively offense against two locked-in arms lands this one right at a 50/50 coin flip.

• Coin flip — Foster Griffin's 85% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 35% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 21% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Shane Drohan brings a strong 82% NRFI rate into Anaheim, and Ryan Johnson counters at 71%, so the arms tilt this toward a quiet frame. The tension is the Angels' bats, who plate a first-inning run in 36% of games — third-most in MLB — and 37% against lefties like Drohan. That collision leaves the model dead even at 49%, matching the book.

• Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 36% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Ranger Suarez carries a solid 71% first-inning scoreless mark into Dodger Stadium, and the Red Sox bats have been quiet early, plating a first-inning run just 23% of the time. The catch is Edgardo Henriquez, who has no season starts to lean on, so the model's slight 51% NRFI edge comes with real uncertainty against a Dodgers offense that scores early 33% of the time.

• Coin flip — Ranger Suarez's 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.