NRFI Results

Robbie Ray has kept the first inning clean in 78% of his 18 starts, and he draws a Giants-friendly matchup against a Los Angeles offense that only plots the first inning 34% of the time. Oracle Park's 94 run factor tilts things further toward the pitchers, and San Francisco's bats rank 29th at scoring early. Ryan Johnson's 67% NRFI rate rounds out a lean to the under.

• NRFI lean — Ryan Johnson (67% NRFI) and Robbie Ray (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.

Nick Martinez has been nearly untouchable in opening frames, posting an 89% NRFI mark across 18 starts, and he's drawn a favorable spot against a Cleveland lineup that plates a first-inning run just 24% of the time — 28th in MLB. Bibee brings a solid 70% NRFI himself, and with Tropicana's below-average 95 run factor, this leans quiet early.

• NRFI lean — Tanner Bibee (70% NRFI) and Nick Martinez (89%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Bryan Woo has been nearly untouchable in the first frame, posting an 89% NRFI mark across 18 starts and running his last five in a row scoreless. Texas puts up a first-inning run in just 30% of games, and only 28% against righties, so Woo's dominance carries this lean. Eovaldi's more modest 67% NRFI keeps it from being a runaway, but a pitcher-friendly Globe Life (94 run factor) helps.

• NRFI lean — Bryan Woo (89% NRFI) and Nathan Eovaldi (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -138 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 44% against left-handers.

• YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +115 (44% implied).
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB.

Casey Mize hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 15 starts, and Michael Wacha checks in at 84% NRFI, so the arms clearly have the edge here. But Detroit's bats plate a run in the first 34% of the time — 9th-most in MLB — which is enough to keep this from tilting clean. The model and market agree at 53%, a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Casey Mize's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 34% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -134 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Foster Griffin has been a first-inning wall for Washington, posting an 84% NRFI rate over 19 starts and keeping it scoreless in each of his last five. That points toward NRFI, but the Nationals' bats push back — they score in the first 36% of the time, second-most in MLB, which drags this closer to a coin flip at 48% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Foster Griffin's 84% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -5 (8% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

Eury Perez has kept the first frame clean in four of his last five, and San Diego's bats aren't the ones to push him — the Padres open the scoring just 23% of the time, dead last in MLB. That said, Randy Vasquez has faltered early in three of his last five, and Miami scores first-inning runs 31% of the time. The model splits it right down the middle at 50%.

• Coin flip — Eury Perez's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 31% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (53% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Sonny Gray has kept the first inning clean in all five of his last starts and posts a 65% NRFI over 17 outings, giving Boston the edge on the mound. But Fenway's 108 run factor and Dylan Cease's shakier 59% mark — with runs allowed in three of his last five first innings — pull this back toward even, landing it at a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Sonny Gray's 65% NRFI is the case for the under; the Boston Red Sox's 24% first-inning bats (25th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -155 (57% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Two of the game's best first-inning arms toe the rubber at PNC Park, with Imanaga sitting at 79% NRFI and Skenes right behind at 75%, each clean in four of their last five. So why only 53% scoreless? Pittsburgh's bats plate a first-inning run 34% of the time, eighth-most in MLB, which keeps this one squarely a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Shota Imanaga's 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Bryce Elder brings a strong 78% NRFI rate over 18 starts into Camden Yards, and Baltimore's bats rank near the bottom in first-inning scoring at just 24% (28% against righties). But Brandon Young's 69% mark is more modest, and Atlanta's lineup does damage early — 37% versus right-handers — which is enough to keep this close to a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Bryce Elder's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -105 (48% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Feltner's 64% first-inning clean rate and Gasser's 60% mark give both sides a decent shot at a scoreless frame, and American Family Field's 94 run factor plays slightly below average. The tension is Colorado's bat: the Rockies plate a first-inning run 35% of the time, fifth-most in MLB, and 38% against lefties like Gasser. That offense keeps this closer to a true coin flip than the book's 63% NRFI suggests.

• Coin flip — Ryan Feltner's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 35% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +3 (63% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.

Both starters have kept the scoreboard clean early — Hunter Brown at 71% NRFI and Sean Burke at 73% — which is why this leans quiet. The wrinkle is Houston's offense, which plates a first-inning run 36% of the time (3rd-most in MLB) and jumps to 41% versus right-handers. That tension pushes the model to 48%, right around the market's 50%.

• Coin flip — Sean Burke's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 36% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.

Yamamoto rolls into Citi Field with a perfect 5/5 clean first innings over his last five starts, and McLean answers with a 74% NRFI mark across 19 outings — two arms that lean toward zeros. The catch: the Dodgers put up a first-inning run in 32% of their games, keeping this from tilting fully quiet. At 52% scoreless versus the book's 55%, it's genuinely a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Nolan McLean's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Andre Pallante has kept the first inning clean in 63% of his 19 starts and four of his last five, giving the Cardinals a steadier arm here. The wrinkle is Hunter Greene, scoreless in just 33% of his three outings and one of five lately, though Cincinnati's bats plate a first-inning run only 28% of the time. Those crosscurrents leave this one right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Andre Pallante's 63% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.