NRFI Results

Two of the game's stingiest first-inning arms square off here, with Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski (82% NRFI) edging Freddy Peralta's 79% mark for the Mets. Neither offense does much early either — both the Brewers and Mets plate a first-inning run just 27% of the time and drop to 25% against right-handers. American Family Field's 94 run factor only reinforces the lean toward zeros.

• NRFI lean — Freddy Peralta (79% NRFI) and Jacob Misiorowski (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Jack Flaherty is the anchor here, sitting on an 82% NRFI mark across 17 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five outings. He'll face a Cubs lineup that lights up the first inning just 23% of the time, one of the quieter starts in baseball. Taillon's 69% NRFI adds support, and the model's 54% pins a solid edge over the market's 41%.

• NRFI lean — Jack Flaherty (82% NRFI) and Jameson Taillon (69%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at +130 (41% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 23% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

George Kirby is the anchor here, posting a 71% NRFI mark across 17 starts and keeping the first frame clean in four of his last five. The Reds only push a run across in the opening inning 28% of the time, and just 29% against righties. Abbott is the wobblier side at 47% NRFI, but T-Mobile's 83 park factor helps tilt this slightly toward a scoreless first.

• NRFI lean — George Kirby has worked a scoreless first in 71% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at -135 (54% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.

Ryan Weathers is the soft spot here, sitting at just 61% NRFI across 18 starts and getting through a clean first only three of his last five. That opens the door for a Pirates offense that plates a first-inning run in 35% of games, fourth-most in MLB. The model's 45% scoreless read edges the book's 36% NRFI, nudging this one toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -127.5 (36% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

Houston's bats push this one toward YRFI, plating a first-inning run in 36% of games — second-most in MLB — and 40% of the time against righties like Janson Junk. Junk himself has been solid at 75% NRFI across 12 starts, but Ronel Blanco has no season starts yet, so his side is a question mark. Low confidence given the thin sample.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Coors Field is doing the heavy lifting here, its 128 park factor pumping run expectancy in a way even two pitchers with clean recent form can't fully offset. Andrew Alvarez carries a spotless 100% NRFI over six starts and Kyle Freeland sits at 69%, but Colorado plates a first-inning run 35% of the time — seventh-most in the majors — which tilts this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Washington Nationals score early in 35% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +130 (41% implied); the model has it 40%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 38% against left-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Chase Field's hitter-friendly 106 run factor sets the tone here, and neither lefty inspires much first-inning confidence — Springs sits at just 44% NRFI across 18 starts, while Bratt's 50% mark comes from a paltry two-start sample. With both starters offering little clean-inning track record in a park that plays up offense, this one nudges toward YRFI, though thin data keeps the confidence low.

• YRFI lean — Chase Field (run factor 106) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Arizona Diamondbacks score early in 31% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +104 (46% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Joe Ryan brings a spotless first inning of late, going 5-for-5 on NRFI over his last five starts to pair with a 74% mark on the year. The tension is on the other side: Minnesota's bats put up first-inning runs 36% of the time against righties, the highest rate in MLB, testing Tanner Bibee's 68% NRFI. That clash keeps this one near a true toss-up.

• Coin flip — Joe Ryan's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Minnesota Twins' 36% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.

Cristopher Sanchez brings the sharpest edge here, holding a 74% first-inning scoreless rate across 19 starts for the Phillies, and Emmet Sheehan counters with a solid 63% for the Dodgers. Both offenses are middling in the first, with Philadelphia scoring early 31% of the time and Los Angeles 33%. That said, Citizens Bank Park's slight hitter-friendly tilt keeps this one a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cristopher Sanchez's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -122.5 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Nick Martinez has been an elite first-inning arm this year, holding an 88% NRFI mark across 17 starts, and Toronto's bats rank 26th at scoring early (just 23%). The offset comes from Dylan Cease, whose 56% NRFI is far shakier, facing a Tampa Bay lineup that plates a first-inning run 35% of the time. That split tension keeps this one right at 50/50.

• Coin flip — Nick Martinez's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 35% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Payton Tolle's 73% first-inning shutout rate is the loudest signal here, and the Orioles have plated a first-inning run just 23% of the time — a mere 7% against lefties. But Shane Baz sits at a wobblier 56% NRFI, and Fenway's 108 park factor pushes scoring, keeping this one right around a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Payton Tolle's 73% NRFI is the case for the under; the Boston Red Sox's 23% first-inning bats (25th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -110.5 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 7% against left-handers.

Both starters have kept the first frame quiet at nearly identical clips — JP Sears at 75% NRFI over four starts, Bryce Elder at 76% across 17. San Diego's bats barely dent the first inning (23%, second-worst in MLB), and Atlanta drops to 25% against lefties like Sears. Truist plays slightly hitter-friendly at 102, though, which keeps this close to even.

• Coin flip — Bryce Elder's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Michael Wacha has been a first-inning fortress, posting an 83% NRFI mark across 18 starts and clean frames in each of his last five. His counterpart Trevor McDonald checks in more ordinary at 62%, and Kansas City's bats plate a run in the first 33% of the time. Those offsetting signals leave this one right on the fence at 51% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Michael Wacha's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 33% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +106 (46% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

deGrom has kept the first frame scoreless in exactly half of his 18 starts, but two run-scoring first innings in his last five is why this doesn't tilt further toward NRFI. Fedde's shakier profile — a 44% clean rate and just one scoreless first over his last five — muddies the picture. With Globe Life's below-average 94 run factor in play, it's a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jacob deGrom's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -121 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Kyle Leahy brings an elite 82% first-inning NRFI mark into Anaheim, and he's kept the board clean in four of his last five starts. Jose Soriano counters with five straight scoreless first innings, though his 68% season rate is more human. The catch: the Angels' bats rank 8th in MLB for first-inning scoring, keeping this one a genuine 48% toss-up.

• Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -111 (49% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.