NRFI Results

Walker Buehler's been reliable early, posting an 82% NRFI mark across 17 starts and holding the zero in four of his last five. He's backed by a Padres offense that's among the quietest in the first, plating a run just 22% of the time and only 20% against righties. Pfaadt's 75% NRFI adds to the lean at pitcher-friendly Petco.

• NRFI lean — Brandon Pfaadt (75% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (82%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -110 (49% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Landen Roupp brings a stout 76% first-inning scoreless rate into Oracle Park, a pitcher's yard at a 94 run factor, and that's the backbone of this NRFI lean. Kevin Gausman holds a solid 65% mark for Toronto, while the Giants plate a first-inning run just 22% of the time and only 19% against righties. The model's 57% edges the book's 55%.

• NRFI lean — Kevin Gausman (65% NRFI) and Landen Roupp (76%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -140 (55% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Houston's bats are the reason to lean YRFI here — the Astros light up the first inning in 36% of games, fifth-most in MLB and 38% against righties, and Mike Burrows carries just a 60% NRFI mark over 15 starts. Miles Mikolas has been sharp early (83% NRFI), but that alone barely tips this to a coin flip, with the model at 44% scoreless.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (5th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +108 (45% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.

Colorado's bats are the story here, ranking 6th in MLB for first-inning scoring and jumping to 43% against left-handers like Eric Lauer, who's held a scoreless first in just half of his 10 starts. Freeland offers more resistance at 64% NRFI, but with the Rockies' offense pressing Lauer early, the model's slight lean toward a run crossing in the first makes sense.

• YRFI lean — the Colorado Rockies push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (6th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 44%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 36% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 43% against left-handers.

Two lefties with strong first-inning track records meet in Kansas City, as Noah Cameron's 81% NRFI clip and Cristopher Sanchez's 76% both point toward a quiet frame. That said, Kauffman plays slightly above average for runs, and both offenses plate a first-inning run 33% of the time, keeping this close. The model's 49% scoreless number lands right at a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Noah Cameron's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 33% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.

Cam Schlittler brings a stingy 88% NRFI mark across 17 starts to the Trop, where the run factor sits at 95, and Griffin Jax counters with a solid 75%. The tension is on the other side: both the Rays and Yankees rank among MLB's top three for first-inning scoring at 37%. Those clashing signals leave the model at 49%, a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cam Schlittler's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 37% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Freddy Peralta brings a strong 76% NRFI mark across 17 starts, and the Mets rank near the bottom of the league at scoring in the first inning (26%). The counterweight is Reynaldo Lopez, who has held the first frame scoreless just 17% of the time and has allowed a run in each of his last five outings. Those clashing profiles land this Truist Park matchup at a 48% coin flip.

• Coin flip — Freddy Peralta's 76% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 33% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -2.5 (4% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

Shane Drohan brings the strongest signal to Busch Stadium, sitting scoreless in the first in 86% of his seven starts. The problem is the other side: Dustin May's 53% NRFI rate is barely a toss-up, and the Cardinals score first in 42% of games against lefties like Drohan. Those competing forces leave this one right around the 48% mark — a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Shane Drohan's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 31% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 42% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.