NRFI Results

Both starters have been airtight out of the gate — Michael King owns a 93% first-inning scoreless rate over 15 starts, while Shohei Ohtani hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 13. San Diego's bats compound the lean, plating a run in the first just 22% of the time and only 20% against righties. The model's 56% NRFI reads a touch higher than the book's 50%.

• NRFI lean — Michael King (93% NRFI) and Shohei Ohtani (100%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 56%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 22% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Both offenses rank near the top of the league in first-inning scoring, with the Twins and Yankees each plating a run in 37% of their games — and that's the driving force behind this YRFI lean. Mike Paredes and Gerrit Cole both post solid NRFI rates (75% and 71%), but the model still sees the first frame producing a run 55% of the time.

• YRFI lean — the New York Yankees push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (2nd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (44% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 37% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +107 (45% implied).
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 22% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.

Sutter Health Park's inflated 117 run factor is the pull toward YRFI here, even with Tyler Phillips carrying a strong 83% first-inning scoreless mark for Miami. Jack Perkins has been shakier at 60% NRFI over five starts, and the Marlins bring a top-tier bat that scores first 35% of the time. It's close, but the model's 43% scoreless edges toward action.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Miami Marlins score early in 35% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +120 (42% implied); the model has it 43%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against right-handers.

David Peterson has thrown a scoreless first in just 13% of his eight starts, and with the Cardinals plating a run in the opening frame 41% of the time against lefties, there's real reason to expect crooked numbers early. But Andre Pallante counters at a 56% NRFI clip against a Cubs lineup that scores first in only 20% of games, keeping this one a genuine coin flip.

• Coin flip — Andre Pallante's 56% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +110 (45% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 20% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 41% against left-handers.

Two pitchers matching stride for stride at 81% first-inning NRFI make this a genuine toss-up, with Mitch Keller riding four clean firsts in his last five and Foster Griffin one better at five-for-five. The tension comes from Pittsburgh's bats, who plate a first-inning run 37% of the time — though they slip to 26% against lefties like Griffin. The model and book agree at 48%.

• Coin flip — Mitch Keller's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 37% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 26% against left-handers.

Trevor Rogers has stranded the first frame in 79% of his 14 starts, including all five of his last five, and the Reds' offense scores in the opening inning just 19% of the time against lefties. The tension is Brady Singer's shakier 47% NRFI mark plus Great American's hitter-friendly 106 park factor, which keeps this closer to a true coin flip at 49% scoreless.

• Coin flip — Trevor Rogers' 79% NRFI is the case for the under; the Cincinnati Reds' 28% first-inning bats (22nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -3 (5% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 19% against left-handers.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Gavin Williams walks to the mound with a strong 69% NRFI mark across 16 starts, and he's opposing a White Sox lineup that plates a first-inning run in just 25% of games against righties. Anthony Kay's more modest 57% keeps this honest, but Progressive Field's 94 run factor tilts things quiet. The model's 51% scoreless call sits well above the market's implied 38%.

• Coin flip — Gavin Williams' 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 32% first-inning bats (17th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -134 (38% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 22% against left-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Grant Holmes brings the strongest arm to the mound here, sitting scoreless in the first in 77% of his 13 starts, and Christian Scott counters at a respectable 60%. Both offenses have been quiet early too, with the Mets plating a first-inning run just 25% of the time and the Braves at 33%. Still, Truist's slightly hitter-friendly 102 park factor keeps this a near-even 49% call.

• Coin flip — Grant Holmes' 77% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 33% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -1 (2% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 25% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.

Nick Martinez brings a sturdy 87% NRFI mark across 15 starts, which is the anchor here, but both offenses push back hard. Houston plates a first-inning run in 36% of games while Tampa Bay leads MLB in first-inning scoring at 38%, jumping to 41% against righties like Arrighetti. With the model at 47% and the book near 48%, this one reads as a genuine toss-up.

• Coin flip — Nick Martinez's 87% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 38% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.

Jake Bennett has kept the first inning clean in all six of his starts, an eye-catching number that tilts things toward NRFI. Reid Detmers backs it up at 75% for the Angels, though the Boston lineup's low 23% first-inning scoring rate meets an Angels offense that plates a run in 34% of games. The push-and-pull lands this one right at a coin flip.

• Coin flip — Jake Bennett's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -120 (51% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

Kyle Harrison brings a shiny 86% first-inning scoreless rate over 14 starts, and the Diamondbacks have plated a first-inning run in just 29% of games. The problem is the other dugout: Jose Cabrera has only two starts to lean on, so there's little to trust behind him at run-friendly Chase Field. That thin sample keeps this closer to a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Kyle Harrison's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 32% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

Luis Castillo's 62% NRFI rate gives Seattle the steadier arm here, and T-Mobile Park's run factor of 83 helps suppress early offense. But Dylan Cease has wobbled lately, going 1-for-5 on NRFI over his last five starts, which keeps this leaning toward a true coin flip. Toronto's bats sit at just 24% first-inning scoring, so the model's 53% scoreless read feels fair.

• Coin flip — Luis Castillo's 62% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 33% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -145 (55% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.