NRFI Results

Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski bring identical 93% first-inning scoreless marks into American Family Field, with Misiorowski having stranded the opening frame in all five of his last five starts. Neither offense does much early either — Cincinnati plates a first-inning run just 27% of the time against righties, Milwaukee 31% — which tilts this toward NRFI, though the model's 57% sits a touch under the book's number.

• NRFI lean — Chase Burns (93% NRFI) and Jacob Misiorowski (93%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -165 (59% implied); the model has it 57%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.

Davis Martin has been nearly untouchable early, posting an 87% NRFI mark across 15 starts and a clean 5-for-5 over his last five. It helps that the Guardians push a run across in the first just 24% of the time, among the quietest opening frames in the league. With Progressive Field's 94 run factor suppressing offense, the lean is toward a scoreless first.

• NRFI lean — Davis Martin (87% NRFI) and Slade Cecconi (69%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -109.5 (49% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Two clean first-inning arms headline this one: Walbert Urena has kept the frame scoreless in 85% of his 13 starts, while Seattle's Bryce Miller sits at 83% over six. T-Mobile Park's suppressive 83 run factor adds to the case, and neither offense scores early often — the Mariners and Angels each open the board in just 34% of games. A modest NRFI lean.

• NRFI lean — Walbert Urena (85% NRFI) and Bryce Miller (83%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -141 (55% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 34% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.

Alan Rangel taking the mound without a single season start leaves a big unknown, and that thin sample is a real reason to lean YRFI here. Pittsburgh's bats have been early aggressors, scoring in the first 37% of the time — third-most in MLB — and 40% against righties. Jared Jones brings a solid 67% NRFI mark, but the Rangel question tips this one toward a run.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +112 (44% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.

Coors Field and its 128 run factor tip the scales here, giving both offenses room to open the scoring early. Ryan Gusto brings an impressive 80% first-inning shutout rate over five starts, but Lorenzen's 69% mark is shakier, and the Marlins have scored in the opening frame 34% of the time. In this altitude, that combination leans YRFI at 60%.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Miami Marlins score early in 34% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +135 (40% implied); the model has it 40%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Tampa Bay owns baseball's most active first-inning offense, plating a run in 38% of games and 42% against righties like Kansas City's Stephen Kolek, whose 78% NRFI mark takes a hit against that lineup. Ian Seymour's spotless 100% NRFI over three starts is a tiny sample, and with Kauffman playing slightly above average for runs, the model's 47% scoreless number tilts this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Tampa Bay Rays push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at +113 (44% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 30% against left-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 42% against right-handers.

Dustin May brings a 57% NRFI mark and four scoreless first frames in his last five starts, but the read gets murky on the other side with Hurston Waldrep yet to log a season start. Both offenses run cool early — Atlanta plates a first-inning run in 32% of games, St. Louis just 29% — so the model's 47% scoreless number sits right on the fence, dragged down by that thin starter sample.

• Coin flip — Dustin May's 57% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 32% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -5 (8% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Both starters are carrying scoreless-first streaks into Globe Life Field, with Eovaldi perfect over his last five and Valdez at four of five. That pitching form nudges toward NRFI, yet neither lineup is easy to shut out — Detroit plates a first-inning run 32% of the time. The pitcher edge and offensive resistance roughly cancel out, landing this at a true 50/50.

• Coin flip — Framber Valdez's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Detroit Tigers' 32% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -143 (56% implied); the model has it 50%.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 29% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Roki Sasaki has kept the first frame clean in 86% of his 14 starts, and San Diego's bats rank 29th in the majors at scoring early, plating a first-inning run just 18% of the time against right-handers. The catch is Randy Vasquez, whose 57% NRFI mark dips to 1-for-5 lately, giving the Dodgers' top-10 offense room to answer. It nets out close to a 51% toss-up.

• Coin flip — Roki Sasaki's 86% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 33% first-inning bats (10th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +109 (45% implied); the model has it 51%.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 21% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.