NRFI Results

Nolan McLean has been money in the opening frame, posting an 80% NRFI rate across 15 starts and keeping it scoreless in all five of his last outings. The Blue Jays don't help their own cause either, putting up a first-inning run just 23% of the time and 27% against righties. Gausman's a touch shakier at 63%, but the bats on both sides nudge this toward NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Nolan McLean (80% NRFI) and Kevin Gausman (63%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -125 (98% implied); the model has it 54%.
• The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
• The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

Two of MLB's quietest first-inning offenses meet at Wrigley, where the Cubs plate a run in the opening frame just 19% of the time and the Padres only 20%. Matthew Boyd's 80% NRFI mark over five starts gives Chicago a steady arm, and Chicago's lineup has scored in the first against lefties only 10% of the time. JP Sears' lone-start sample keeps confidence low, but the lean tilts NRFI.

• NRFI lean — Matthew Boyd has worked a scoreless first in 80% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
• Books price this NRFI at +132.5 (41% implied); the model has it 60%.
• The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 19% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 10% against left-handers.
• The San Diego Padres score in the first in 20% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.

Bryan Woo has been a first-inning wall, posting an 87% NRFI mark across 15 starts and going a perfect 5-for-5 over his last five. T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly run factor of 83 only strengthens that lean. The wrinkle is Soriano's more modest 63% rate, so the Angels' opposing scoreless half is the softer side of this NRFI tilt.

• NRFI lean — Jose Soriano (63% NRFI) and Bryan Woo (87%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
• Books price this NRFI at -141 (55% implied); the model has it 53%.
• The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.
• The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Both offenses bring real first-inning juice here — Pittsburgh ranks first in MLB at putting up a run in the opening frame (38%), and Philadelphia sits seventh (35%). With Bubba Chandler and Cristopher Sanchez each going 3-of-5 NRFI over their last five starts, the model's 46% scoreless number screams value against a book that's pricing in 86% NRFI.

• YRFI lean — the Pittsburgh Pirates push a first-inning run across in 38% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -115.5 (86% implied); the model has it 46%.
• The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 38% of games, the most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

Connelly Early gives the home edge an even split on first-inning scoring, posting a 50% NRFI mark across 14 starts, and he draws a Nationals lineup that plates a first-inning run 33% of the time. Fenway's 108 run factor only adds fuel here, and the model pegs a scoreless frame at just 47% — a clear YRFI tilt.

• YRFI lean — Fenway Park (run factor 108) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Washington Nationals score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at -6.5 (10% implied); the model has it 47%.
• The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 23% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
• The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.

Houston's offense ranks 4th in MLB for first-inning scoring and plates a run 38% of the time against righties, which is a real concern for Joe Ryan even at his solid 69% NRFI mark. Minnesota's bats aren't far behind, sitting 5th-most in baseball, so Mike Burrows faces pressure too. The model's 45% scoreless figure leans YRFI against the book's 51%.

• YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (4th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
• Books price this NRFI at -118 (51% implied); the model has it 45%.
• The Houston Astros score in the first in 36% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
• The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 35% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

Coors Field does its usual thing here, with a 128 park factor inflating first-inning run potential behind two starters who haven't kept much off the board. Eury Perez sits at just 58% NRFI across 12 starts, while Tanner Gordon brings a tiny two-start sample for the Rockies. The model gives the first frame a 39% chance of staying scoreless, nudging this toward YRFI.

• YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Miami Marlins score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +124.5 (42% implied); the model has it 39%.
• The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
• The Miami Marlins score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

Sutter Health Park inflates run-scoring with its 117 park factor, and that's the biggest reason this leans YRFI despite Justin Wrobleski's strong 77% NRFI rate. Jeffrey Springs is the bigger question for Oakland, posting a coin-flip 50% NRFI across 16 starts, which gives the Dodgers' lineup a real path to plate one early. The model's 42% scoreless chance sits right alongside the book's 41%.

• YRFI lean — Sutter Health Park (run factor 117) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Los Angeles Dodgers score early in 33% of games.
• Books price this NRFI at +130 (41% implied); the model has it 42%.
• The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.

Trey Gibson's 33% NRFI rate over six starts is the red flag here, and he's posted scoreless first frames in just two of his last five. That said, Baltimore's bats stay quiet early, scoring in only 23% of openers — 26th in MLB — which helps offset Gibson's shakiness against a White Sox lineup that plates a run in 30% of first innings. A genuine toss-up at Camden Yards.

• Coin flip — Erick Fedde's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 30% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +114.5 (44% implied); the model has it 49%.
• The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
• The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

Tanner Bibee's 69% first-inning success rate is the standout arm here, and a Cleveland lineup that plates a run in just 23% of openers gives him plenty of support. The tension comes from deGrom, who's allowed a first-inning run in four of his last five despite a solid 56% NRFI mark. With a pitcher's-leaning Progressive Field at a 94 park factor, it's a genuine toss-up at 52%.

• Coin flip — Tanner Bibee's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 30% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -144 (56% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 23% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
• The Texas Rangers score in the first in 30% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

Cam Schlittler has been near-perfect at keeping the first inning clean, posting a 94% NRFI mark across 16 starts and going 5-for-5 in his last five. The tension comes from the other side: Skubal sits at just 56% with the Yankees' first-inning bats among the most dangerous in baseball, scoring 48% of the time against lefties. That split between the two arms keeps this one a true coin flip.

• Coin flip — Cam Schlittler's 94% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 37% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -148.5 (56% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The New York Yankees score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 48% against left-handers.
• The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 32% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.

Martin Perez has been money in the opening frame, posting a 75% NRFI rate and going 5-for-5 over his last five starts for Atlanta. The flip side is the Cardinals' bats, who light up lefties at a 47% first-inning clip — and Perez throws from that side. With those forces pulling against each other, the model lands at just 48% scoreless, well under the book's 62% implied NRFI.

• Coin flip — Martin Perez's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 31% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +5 (62% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 28% against left-handers.
• The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 29% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 47% against left-handers.

Brandon Sproat has set down the side scoreless in 83% of his 12 starts, a strong NRFI marker that tilts this slightly toward a quiet frame. The Reds back him up by plating a first-inning run just 27% of the time, but Lowder's 55% NRFI rate keeps things genuinely even — the model lands at 52% scoreless, right on the fence.

• Coin flip — Brandon Sproat's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 32% first-inning bats (12th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -1.5 (3% implied); the model has it 52%.
• The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 32% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
• The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

Griffin Jax brings an 82% first-inning scoreless rate to Kauffman, and Noah Cameron nearly matches it at 80% over 15 starts — both have held the line in four of their last five. The catch is Tampa Bay's offense, which lights up the first inning more than almost anyone (38%) and posts at 35% against lefties like Cameron. That clash leaves this one right around even at 48%.

• Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 38% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at +101 (47% implied); the model has it 48%.
• The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
• The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 38% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 35% against left-handers.

• Coin flip — Landen Roupp's 81% NRFI is the case for the under; the Arizona Diamondbacks' 28% first-inning bats (21st-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
• Books price this NRFI at -114 (50% implied).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
• The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 28th-most in MLB.