NRFI Results

Kyle Bradish anchors this lean with an 87% NRFI mark across 15 starts, and he's matched against an Orioles-friendly setup where Baltimore's bats only push a run across in the first 21% of the time. Zack Littell holds up his end too at 73%, both righties going 4-for-5 in their last five. The Nationals' 33% first-inning rate is the main wrinkle keeping this short of a strong tilt.

Brandon Woodruff has kept the first inning clean in five straight starts and sits at 71% NRFI on the year, a solid anchor for the home side at American Family Field's pitcher-friendly 94 run factor. The Cubs' bats add to the lean, plating a first-inning run in just 19% of games — second-fewest in MLB. Note that Rolison's spotless mark comes from a single start, so the read is thin.

Chris Sale brings an 85% first-inning shutout rate across 13 starts, and Robbie Ray counters at 79% over his 14, giving Oracle Park a clear pitching edge in the opening frame. The Giants plate a first-inning run just 23% of the time, 25th in MLB, which leans this toward NRFI. The 56% model read sits a hair under the book's 57%.

Michael King is the headliner here, posting a sterling 93% NRFI mark across 14 starts and keeping the Dodgers' bats quiet to open games. The Padres' offense is part of the appeal too, scoring in the first just 21% of the time — among the league's quietest early — which helps offset Emmet Sheehan's middling 54% NRFI. Petco's run factor of 94 only nudges this further toward a scoreless first.

Brady Singer brings shaky early-inning numbers to PNC Park, posting just a 43% NRFI rate across 14 starts with three first-inning runs allowed over his last five outings. That's a problem against Pittsburgh's bats, who plate a run in the first 39% of the time — the most in MLB — and 41% against righties. Mitch Keller's sturdy 80% NRFI keeps this from being a runaway, but the lean tilts YRFI.

Target Field's hitter-friendly 104 run factor sets the stage, and the Twins are a top-five first-inning offense who plate runs in 36% of their games. Neither starter overwhelms here — Connor Prielipp sits at 64% NRFI and Ryan Feltner at 70% — but Colorado's bats have been productive early too, hitting in 38% of first innings against lefties. The model's 46% scoreless read nudges this toward YRFI.

Sam Aldegheri's shaky first-inning track record is the headline here — just a 50% NRFI mark over his four starts, with two of his last four allowing an early run. The Angels offense also dents the scoreboard in the opening frame 34% of the time, seventh-most in MLB, and Civale's 62% NRFI doesn't fully offset that combination. Slight YRFI lean at a hitter-friendly Angel Stadium.

Sonny Gray has let a first-inning run cross in four of his last five starts, and Fenway's 108 run factor only sharpens the concern. The Yankees bring the game's second-most active first-inning offense, scoring early 38% of the time, which tilts this toward YRFI. The model's 45% scoreless mark sits well under the book's implied 55%.